Match details. Segunda Division. Kick-off is Sat 31 Oct, 21:00 Lagos time.
Form. CD Concon National FC have won four, drawn none and lost six of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W L W. Brujas de Salamanca have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W L W W.
The numbers. CD Concon National FC score two and concede 1.8 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. CD Concon National FC average 9.5 shots (5.5 on target), 4.3 corners and 3.2 cards a game. Brujas de Salamanca score 1.2 and concede one a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets and three games without a goal. Brujas de Salamanca average 11.7 shots (5.3 on target), 2.7 corners and 2.3 cards a game.
The case against. CD Concon National FC's record still gives them 37% to win.
The read. Brujas de Salamanca to win. An open game. Brujas de Salamanca are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Brujas de Salamanca. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 62%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: CD Concon National FC 1-2 Brujas de Salamanca (8% chance).
The agreed story. Brujas de Salamanca or the draw, an open game.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).