Match details. Tercera Federacion, Group 4. Kick-off is Sat 31 Oct, 16:00 Lagos time.
Form. Deportivo Alaves C have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten league games, 1.5 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: D D W W L. CD San Ignacio have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten league games, 1.7 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: W W W W L.
The numbers. Deportivo Alaves C score 2.4 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. Deportivo Alaves C average 17.0 shots (6.1 on target), 6.0 corners and 2.3 cards a game. CD San Ignacio score 1.8 and concede one a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets. CD San Ignacio average 11.8 shots (2.5 on target), 5.5 corners and 3.0 cards a game.
The case against. Deportivo Alaves C's record still gives them 32% to win.
The read. CD San Ignacio to win. An open game. CD San Ignacio are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour CD San Ignacio. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 75%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Deportivo Alaves C 1-2 CD San Ignacio (8% chance).
The agreed story. CD San Ignacio or the draw, an open game.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).