Al Hikma vs Tripoli AC
Match details. Premier League, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is Sat 31 Oct, 15:30 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Al Hikma are 9th on 1 point after 4 games, 2 points behind Al Mabarrah, level on points with Shabab Al Sahel. A win would take them above Al Mabarrah. Tripoli AC are 5th on 7 points after 4 games, 2 points behind Al Ahed, 3 points clear of Al Nejmeh. A win would take them above Al Ahed.
Form. Al Hikma have won two, drawn one and lost seven of their last ten, 0.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D L L L. Tripoli AC have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W D W.
The numbers. Al Hikma score one and concede 1.2 a game in their last five at home, with no clean sheets and three games without a goal. Al Hikma average 7.2 shots (3.0 on target), 4.8 corners and 1.8 cards a game. Tripoli AC score 1.2 and concede 0.2 a game in their last six away, with five clean sheets and two games without a goal. Tripoli AC average 12.2 shots (4.2 on target), 4.5 corners and 1.8 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last nine meetings Al Hikma have won three, drawn two and lost four. One of the nine went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in two. In the last four, Al Hikma won one and Tripoli AC won three. The last time they met, on 25 Apr 2024, it finished Al Hikma 1-0 Tripoli AC.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 42% against the records' 63%.
The read. No firm call: Tripoli AC are the better side, but not at this price. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Tripoli AC the likelier winners; Tripoli AC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Tripoli AC. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 30%. Eight of the last nine meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.25, 94% on the records (Al Hikma: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 6; Tripoli AC: under 3.5 goals in 7 of 7). Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Al Hikma 0-1 Tripoli AC (16% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).