Match details. Tercera Federacion, Group 13. Kick-off is Sat 31 Oct, 16:00 Lagos time.
Form. Alcantarilla FC have won three, drawn three and lost four of their last ten league games, 1.2 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: L L D W W. UD Los Garres have won two, drawn two and lost three of their last seven league games, 1.1 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: L W L L W.
The numbers. Alcantarilla FC score 0.8 and concede 1.5 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and four games without a goal. Alcantarilla FC average 7.2 shots (3.3 on target), 2.8 corners and 3.0 cards a game. UD Los Garres score one and concede 1.1 a game over their last seven, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. UD Los Garres average 6.0 shots (3.7 on target), 2.3 corners and 3.7 cards a game.
The read. No side to back. A tight game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 46%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Alcantarilla FC 1-1 UD Los Garres (14% chance).
The agreed story. No side to back (UD Los Garres the favourite), a tight game.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).