IFK Trelleborg vs Skara FC
Match details. Division 2, Promotion Play-offs. Kick-off is Sat 31 Oct, 13:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. IFK Trelleborg have won eight, drawn none and lost two of their last ten, 2.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W W W. Skara FC have won seven, drawn one and lost two of their last ten, 2.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W W L. In this competition Skara FC have gone L.
The numbers. IFK Trelleborg score 2.2 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. IFK Trelleborg average 6.5 corners and 1.4 cards a game. Skara FC score 2.5 and concede 1.1 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets. Skara FC average 10.6 shots (4.8 on target), 5.2 corners and 1.0 cards a game.
The case against. A knockout game (Promotion Play-offs) with penalties if level, and IFK Trelleborg are not clearly stronger. Skara FC's record still gives them 45% to win.
The read. IFK Trelleborg or the draw. An open game. Their goals for and against make IFK Trelleborg the likelier winners; both teams' records favour IFK Trelleborg. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 68%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Skara FC or Over 2.5 Goals (the call backs IFK Trelleborg); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: IFK Trelleborg 2-1 Skara FC (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).