Match details. NB I, Women. Kick-off is Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time.
Form. Szent Mihaly SE have won four, drawn none and lost six of their last ten league games, 1.2 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: W L L W L. Astra HFC Budapest have won two, drawn one and lost seven of their last ten league games, 0.7 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: L W L L L.
The numbers. Szent Mihaly SE score 1.5 and concede 2.1 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets and three games without a goal. Szent Mihaly SE average 3.9 corners and 1.5 cards a game. Astra HFC Budapest score 0.8 and concede 1.7 a game over their last ten, with one clean sheet and five games without a goal. Astra HFC Budapest average 1.9 corners and 1.1 cards a game.
The case against. Astra HFC Budapest's record still gives them 40% to win.
The read. Szent Mihaly SE to win. An open game. Szent Mihaly SE are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Szent Mihaly SE. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 55%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Szent Mihaly SE 2-1 Astra HFC Budapest (9% chance).
The agreed story. Szent Mihaly SE or the draw, an open game.
Cup and European games. A domestic cup: sides rotate, and the two can come from different divisions. Too few cup games on either side to read.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).