Match details. ItP. Kick-off is Sat 31 Oct, 14:30 Lagos time.
Form. Palermo FC have won two, drawn two and lost one of their last five league games, 1.6 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: W W D L D. Catanzaro Calcio 2011 U19 have won four, drawn none and lost one of their last five league games, 2.4 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: L W W W W.
The numbers. Palermo FC score 1.4 and concede 1.2 a game over their last five, with two clean sheets. Palermo FC average 10.7 shots (3.7 on target), 6.7 corners and 1.3 cards a game, with 50% of the ball. Catanzaro Calcio 2011 U19 score 2.6 and concede 0.8 a game over their last five, with two clean sheets. Catanzaro Calcio 2011 U19 average 7.2 shots (3.5 on target), 4.5 corners and 2.8 cards a game, with 44% of the ball.
The case against. Palermo FC's record still gives them 30% to win.
The read. Catanzaro Calcio 2011 U19 to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make Catanzaro Calcio 2011 U19 the likelier winners; both teams' records favour Catanzaro Calcio 2011 U19. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 70%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Palermo FC 1-2 Catanzaro Calcio 2011 U19 (10% chance).
The agreed story. Catanzaro Calcio 2011 U19 or the draw, an open game.
Cup and European games. A domestic cup: sides rotate, and the two can come from different divisions. Palermo FC in their last cup games: won 5-2 v Mantova 1911. Too few cup games to judge the side from.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).