Match details. Liga Portugal, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is Mon 2 Nov, 21:15 Lagos time. It is played at Estádio da Luz, Lisbon. The referee is Bruno Pires Costa.
What's at stake. Benfica are 2nd on 22 points after 9 games, 8 points behind FC Porto, 1 point clear of Sporting CP. Alverca Futebol are 10th on 11 points after 9 games, 3 points behind Moreirense, 1 point clear of Famalicao. A win would take them level on points with Moreirense.
Form. Benfica have won nine, drawn none and lost one of their last ten, 2.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W W W. Alverca Futebol have won three, drawn three and lost four of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D W W W.
The numbers. Benfica score 2.9 and concede 0.8 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets. Benfica average 15.5 shots (5.7 on target), 6.6 corners and 3.6 cards a game, with 63% of the ball. Alverca Futebol score 1.6 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Alverca Futebol average 9.2 shots (3.6 on target), 4.6 corners and 2.6 cards a game, with 40% of the ball.
Head to head. Benfica have won all of the last two meetings. Two of the two went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in two. The last time they met, on 8 Feb 2026, it finished Benfica 2-1 Alverca Futebol: Benfica had 29 shots to 6, 64% of the ball, five yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 88% against the records' 64%.
The read. No firm call: Benfica are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Benfica the likelier winners; Benfica are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Benfica. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 69%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.09, 85% on the records (Benfica: over 1.5 goals in 6 of 6; Alverca Futebol: over 1.5 goals in 7 of 9). Full cover: Alverca Futebol Under 1.5 Goals at 1.13. It wins on every score where the best bet loses. Predicted score: Benfica 3-0 Alverca Futebol (12% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).