Match details. Bundesliga, Women. Kick-off is Sat 31 Oct, 14:00 Lagos time.
Form. FC Salzburg Frauen have won five, drawn one and lost four of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W W D. SK Sturm Graz have won six, drawn one and lost three of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W D L L.
The numbers. FC Salzburg Frauen score 1.4 and concede 1.5 a game over their last ten, with five clean sheets and four games without a goal. FC Salzburg Frauen average 5.7 corners and 1.3 cards a game. SK Sturm Graz score 2.8 and concede 2.2 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets. SK Sturm Graz average 6.7 corners and 0.7 cards a game.
The case against. FC Salzburg Frauen's record still gives them 37% to win.
The read. SK Sturm Graz to win. An open game. SK Sturm Graz are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour SK Sturm Graz. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 61%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.17, rated 89% (FC Salzburg Frauen: over 1.5 goals in 8 of 10; SK Sturm Graz: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5 away). Predicted score: FC Salzburg Frauen 1-2 SK Sturm Graz (8% chance).
The agreed story. SK Sturm Graz or the draw, an open game.
Cup and European games. A domestic cup: sides rotate, and the two can come from different divisions. Too few cup games on either side to read.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).