Match details. Liga Portugal, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is Sun 1 Nov, 19:00 Lagos time. It is played at Estádio do Marítimo, Funchal. The referee is Carlos Macedo.
What's at stake. Maritimo Madeira are 14th on 8 points after 9 games, level on points with Vitória SC, 1 point clear of Nacional. A win would take them above Vitória SC. Santa Clara Azores are 4th on 18 points after 9 games, 3 points behind Sporting CP, 1 point clear of Arouca. A win would take them level on points with Sporting CP.
Form. Maritimo Madeira have won two, drawn two and lost six of their last ten, 0.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W L D. Santa Clara Azores have won five, drawn four and lost one of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D W D W.
The numbers. Maritimo Madeira score 1.1 and concede 2.2 a game over their last ten, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. Maritimo Madeira average 7.4 shots (3.4 on target), 3.3 corners and 2.2 cards a game, with 45% of the ball. Santa Clara Azores score 1.4 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets. Santa Clara Azores average 11.5 shots (4.3 on target), 4.0 corners and 3.7 cards a game, with 46% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last nine meetings Maritimo Madeira have won three, drawn two and lost four. Six of the nine went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in six. In the last four, Maritimo Madeira won one, one was drawn and Santa Clara Azores won two. The last time they met, on 14 Apr 2024, it finished Maritimo Madeira 0-0 Santa Clara Azores: Maritimo Madeira had 9 shots to 4, 61% of the ball, six yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 70%; six of the last nine meetings went over 2.5.
The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 70%. Not everything agrees on goals: six of the last nine meetings went over 2.5.
The read. Santa Clara Azores to win. A draw is live. A tight game. Santa Clara Azores are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Santa Clara Azores. Their goals for and against point to a tight game.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.20, 73% on the records (Maritimo Madeira: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 8; Santa Clara Azores: under 3.5 goals in 7 of 9). Backup: 2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5 at 1.35. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); 1X2 - 2UP: Santa Clara Azores (the signs point different ways); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Maritimo Madeira 0-1 Santa Clara Azores (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).