INTERNATIONAL CLUBS - UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE

PORPOR

21:00Wed 4 Nov

NAP

NAP

Porto vs Napoli

CLASS A

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THE READ

Match details. UEFA Champions League, League Stage - 4. Kick-off is Wed 4 Nov, 21:00 Lagos time. It is played at Estádio do Dragão, Porto. The referee is Michael Oliver.

What's at stake. Porto are 35th on 0 points after 3 games, 1 point behind Lille, level on points with Slovan Bratislava. A win would take them above Lille. Napoli are 24th on 3 points after 3 games, 1 point behind Bodo/Glimt, level on points with Sabah FA. A win would take them above Bodo/Glimt.

Team news. Porto are without Gabriel Mec (off the roster), D. Prpic (off the roster), C. Smalling (knee injury), V. Sousa (leg injury), William Gomes (ankle injury), O. Pietuszewski (muscle injury). Napoli are without Alisson Santos (muscle injury), B. Badiashile (injury), A. Buongiorno (knee injury), David Neres (thigh injury), G. Di Lorenzo (muscle injury), C. Favasuli (thigh injury). K. De Bruyne is their top scorer. G. Di Lorenzo is their centre-back.

Form. Porto have won seven, drawn none and lost three of their last ten, 2.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W L L. Napoli have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W D W L.

The numbers. Porto score 1.7 and concede 0.8 a game in their last six at home, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. Porto average 13.2 shots (5.7 on target), 5.8 corners and 1.4 cards a game, with 40% of the ball. Napoli score 1.2 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. Napoli average 11.7 shots (5.5 on target), 4.7 corners and 1.5 cards a game, with 44% of the ball.

The case against. Napoli's record still gives them 33% to win.

The read. Porto to win. A draw is live. A tight game. Porto are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Porto. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 47%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Porto or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Porto or Draw & Over 1.5 (the signs point different ways). Predicted score: Porto 1-0 Napoli (10% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

Porto or Both Teams ScoreIN CODES

1.18

POR 4 of 6 (67%) · NAP 5 of 5 (100%)77.3%

Porto: the bet landed in 4 of 6 at home · Napoli: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 79% · each game weighed by who it was against

Porto (Draw No Bet)PAGE ONLY

1.64

POR 4 of 6 (67%) · NAP 4 of 8 (50%)75.1%

Porto won 4 of 6 at home (draws left out) · Napoli lost 4 of 8 (last 10, all venues) (draws left out) · both last 10: 56% · each game weighed by who it was against · won 7, refunded 1, lost 3

Porto or Draw (1UP)LEANPAGE ONLY

1.26

POR 3 of 5 (60%) · NAP 4 of 6 (67%)64.7%

Porto scored first 3 of last 5, led or was unbeaten in 3 · led or was unbeaten in 4 of 6 at home · Napoli trailed or failed to win in 4 of 5 away · each game weighed by who it was against

Porto 1UPLEANPAGE ONLY

1.57

POR 3 of 5 (60%) · NAP 4 of 6 (67%)58.1%

Porto scored first 3 of last 5, led in 3 · led in 4 of 6 at home · Napoli trailed in 3 of 5 away · each game weighed by who it was against

GOALS

Under 4.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.18

POR 6 of 6 (100%) · NAP 4 of 5 (80%)89.6%

Porto: under 4.5 goals in 6 of 6 at home · Napoli: under 4.5 goals in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 73% · each game weighed by who it was against

BOTH TEAMS SCORE

Both Teams to Score - YesLEANPAGE ONLY

1.67

POR 2 of 6 (33%) · NAP 3 of 5 (60%)51.6%

Porto: both scored in 2 of 6 at home · Napoli: both scored in 3 of 5 away · both last 10: 50% · each game weighed by who it was against

PORTO GOALS

Porto Over 0.5 goalsIN CODES

1.19

POR 4 of 6 (67%) · NAP 5 of 5 (100%)76%

Porto scored in 4 of 6 at home · Napoli conceded in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 79% · each game weighed by who it was against

NAPOLI GOALS

Napoli Over 0.5 goalsTAKEN DOWNPAGE ONLY

1.34

POR 3 of 5 (60%) · NAP 4 of 6 (67%)59.1%

Napoli scored in 3 of 5 away · Porto conceded in 4 of 6 at home · both last 10: 72% · each game weighed by who it was against · Napoli without K. De Bruyne, G. Di Lorenzo (rule 3)

Napoli Under 1.5 goalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.51

POR 4 of 5 (80%) · NAP 5 of 6 (83%)59%

Napoli scored under 1.5 in 4 of 5 away · Porto conceded under 1.5 in 5 of 6 at home · both last 10: 65% · each game weighed by who it was against

HALVES

2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5PAGE ONLY

1.22

POR 5 of 6 (83%) · NAP 5 of 5 (100%)93.5%

Porto: the bet landed in 5 of 6 at home · Napoli: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 96% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against

Left off the list: Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10)); Porto or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10)); Porto or Draw & Over 1.5 (the numbers (53%) and the records (49%) are on opposite sides, and nothing settles it); 1X2 - 2UP: Porto (the numbers (45%) and the records (58%) are on opposite sides, and nothing settles it); Porto or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10)); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–0 10%

Porto goals →

Napoli goals ↓

0-08%

1-010%

2-08%

3-04%

4-01%

5-00.4%

0-18%

1-113%

2-19%

3-14%

4-12%

5-10.5%

0-25%

1-27%

2-25%

3-23%

4-20.9%

5-20.3%

0-32%

1-33%

2-32%

3-31.0%

4-30.4%

5-30.1%

0-40.5%

1-40.8%

2-40.6%

3-40.3%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.1%

1-50.2%

2-50.1%

3-50.1%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).

FORM · LAST 10

PORTOWLWWWLLWWW2.10 PPG

NAPOLILWDWLLWDWL1.40 PPG

THE NUMBERS

PORTO HOMExNAPOLI AWAY

1.90SCORED A GAME1.701.00CONCEDED A GAME1.5030%CLEAN SHEETS20%67%FAILED TO SCORE33%5.80CORNERS A GAME4.701.40CARDS A GAME1.500.93xG1.162.02xG AGAINST2.66

THE BANK

THE QUALITY READ

3.00POINTS A GAME1.40+2.11GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+0.40+6.0SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST-1.73.0LAST 5: POINTS A GAME1.49LEAGUE GAMES10

Porto: the quality side - more shots than it allows, better form (last 5).

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

59%

NO · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

58%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

71%

NO · 85/90

PORTO OR DRAW

82%

OKAY · 80/85

NAPOLI OR DRAW

26%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (9 and 10 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

PORTOxNAPOLI

5GAMES52.80SCORED A GAME2.000.60CONCEDED A GAME1.403.4GOALS IN THEIR GAMES3.480%OVER 1.5 GOALS80%80%OVER 2.5 GOALS60%60%BOTH SCORE40%3.6CARDS IN THEIR GAMES3.49.6CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES11.2

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

TEAM NEWS

PORTO

Out: Gabriel Mec (Off the roster), D. Prpic (Off the roster), C. Smalling (Knee Injury), V. Sousa (Leg Injury), William Gomes (Ankle Injury), O. Pietuszewski (Muscle Injury)

NAPOLI

Out: Alisson Santos (Muscle Injury), B. Badiashile (Injury), A. Buongiorno (Knee Injury), David Neres (Thigh Injury), G. Di Lorenzo (Muscle Injury), C. Favasuli (Thigh Injury)

TRENDS

Porto have scored in 80% of their games.

Napoli have scored in 70% of their games.

Porto kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.

Napoli kept a clean sheet in 20% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstxG & xGAclean sheetsleague tableteam newscornerscards