INTERNATIONAL CLUBS - UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE

AAAEK

18:45Wed 4 Nov

REA

AEK Athens vs Real Madrid

CLASS A

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TOTAL GOALS

Class A

AAv

Over 1.5 Goals

AEK Athens v Real Madrid

International Clubs -… · 18:45

1.09odds

92%book

+5edge

2/2angles

THE READ

Match details. AEK Athens host Real Madrid in UEFA Champions League League Stage - 4 at Allwyn Arena, Nea Filadelfeia. Kick-off is Wed 4 Nov at 18:45 Lagos time. Maurizio Mariani is the referee for this match.

What's at stake. AEK Athens are 27th on 3 points after 3 games, level on points with Lens and RB Leipzig. A win would take them above Lens. Real Madrid are 5th on 9 points after 3 games, level on points with Liverpool and Sporting CP. A win takes them above Liverpool.

Form. AEK Athens have won five, drawn one and lost four of their last ten, averaging 1.6 points a game. Their form has dipped with four losses in their last five, reading L L W L L. Real Madrid have won nine, drawn none and lost one of their last ten, getting 2.7 points a game. They arrive on a five-match winning run (W W W W W).

The numbers. AEK Athens score 2.3 and concede 1.6 a game over their last ten, keeping three clean sheets. They average 13.4 shots (4.7 on target), 5.7 corners and 2.0 cards a game, with 45% of the ball. Real Madrid score 2.6 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. They average 14.4 shots (6.6 on target), 5.9 corners and 2.1 cards a game, with 49% of the ball.

The case against. AEK Athens's record still gives them a 32% chance to win.

The read. Real Madrid to win. An open game. Real Madrid are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Real Madrid. Their xG points to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 84%.

The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.09, 94% on the records (AEK Athens: over 1.5 goals in 9 of 10; Real Madrid: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5 away). Backup: Real Madrid or Over 2.5 Goals at 1.09. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Real Madrid Over 1.5 goals (AEK Athens's own games don't back it (4 of 10)); Under 4.5 Goals (Real Madrid are a clear winner, no Unders); Under 5.5 Goals (Real Madrid are a clear winner, no Unders). Predicted score: AEK Athens 1-2 Real Madrid (8% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

Real Madrid or Over 1.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

AEK 5 of 5 (100%) · REA 9 of 10 (90%)97.7%

Real Madrid: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · AEK Athens: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 95% · each game weighed by who it was against

Real Madrid or Over 2.5 GoalsBACKUPPAGE ONLY

1.09

AEK 5 of 5 (100%) · REA 8 of 10 (80%)95.3%

Real Madrid: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · AEK Athens: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 91% · each game weighed by who it was against

GOALS

Over 0.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

AEK 10 of 10 (100%) · REA 5 of 5 (100%)100%

AEK Athens: over 0.5 goals in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Real Madrid: over 0.5 goals in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 100% · each game weighed by who it was against

Over 1.5 GoalsMAININ CODES

1.09

AEK 9 of 10 (90%) · REA 5 of 5 (100%)96.8%

AEK Athens: over 1.5 goals in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Real Madrid: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 90% · each game weighed by who it was against

Over 2.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.32

AEK 7 of 10 (70%) · REA 5 of 5 (100%)88%

AEK Athens: over 2.5 goals in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Real Madrid: over 2.5 goals in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 81% · each game weighed by who it was against

BOTH TEAMS SCORE

Both Teams to Score - YesLEANIN CODES

1.71

AEK 6 of 10 (60%) · REA 4 of 5 (80%)60.5%

AEK Athens: both scored in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Real Madrid: both scored in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 71% · each game weighed by who it was against

REAL MADRID GOALS

Real Madrid Over 0.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

AEK 5 of 5 (100%) · REA 7 of 10 (70%)92.9%

Real Madrid scored in 5 of 5 away · AEK Athens conceded in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 86% · each game weighed by who it was against

HALVES

Over 0.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY

1.18

AEK 9 of 10 (90%) · REA 4 of 5 (80%)85.3%

AEK Athens: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Real Madrid: the bet landed in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 85% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against

2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5PAGE ONLY

1.12

AEK 8 of 10 (80%) · REA 4 of 5 (80%)82.2%

AEK Athens: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Real Madrid: the bet landed in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 86% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against

2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 1.5PAGE ONLY

1.56

AEK 7 of 10 (70%) · REA 4 of 5 (80%)74.2%

AEK Athens: the bet landed in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Real Madrid: the bet landed in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 71% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against

2nd Half - Real Madrid Over/Under: Over 0.5PAGE ONLY

1.21

AEK 4 of 5 (80%) · REA 6 of 10 (60%)71.1%

Real Madrid: the bet landed in 4 of 5 away · AEK Athens: the bet landed in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 71% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against

CARDS

Over 2.5 CardsIN CODES

1.30

AEK 9 of 10 (90%) · REA 4 of 5 (80%)80.8%

AEK Athens's games: over 2.5 cards in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Real Madrid's games: over 2.5 cards in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 77% · each game weighed by who it was against

Left off the list: Real Madrid Over 1.5 goals (AEK Athens's own games don't back it (4 of 10)); Under 4.5 Goals (Real Madrid are a clear winner - no Unders); Under 5.5 Goals (Real Madrid are a clear winner - no Unders)

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–2 7.8%

AEK Athens goals →

Real Madrid goals ↓

0-02%

1-03%

2-03%

3-02%

4-01%

5-00.4%

0-14%

1-18%

2-17%

3-14%

4-12%

5-10.8%

0-24%

1-28%

2-27%

3-25%

4-22%

5-20.8%

0-33%

1-35%

2-35%

3-33%

4-31%

5-30.6%

0-41%

1-43%

2-43%

3-42%

4-40.8%

5-40.3%

0-50.6%

1-51%

2-51%

3-50.7%

4-50.3%

5-50.1%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).

FORM · LAST 10

AEK ATHENSWDWWWLLWLL1.60 PPG

REAL MADRIDWWWLWWWWWW2.70 PPG

THE NUMBERS

AEK ATHENS HOMExREAL MADRID AWAY

2.30SCORED A GAME2.801.60CONCEDED A GAME1.2030%CLEAN SHEETS20%20%FAILED TO SCORE0%5.70CORNERS A GAME5.902.00CARDS A GAME2.101.43xG2.511.65xG AGAINST1.61

THE BANK

THE BANKER MENU

OVER 1.5 CARDS

–

718 OF 767

NO PRICE YET

The Bank expects 4.5+ cards.

Other bets the bookie sells that won 9 times in 10 or more on games like this one, in each of three spells: 20-24 Oct, 25-29 Oct and 30 Oct-2 Nov. The price is low because the bookie expects it too. A bet with no price yet, or one under 1.09, is not in any code.

THE QUALITY READ

1.83POINTS A GAME2.45+1.17GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+1.64+2.2SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST+3.72.0LAST 5: POINTS A GAME2.46LEAGUE GAMES11

Real Madrid: the quality side - a top-five league club v a smaller league.

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

88%

VERY GOOD · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

82%

VERY GOOD · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

59%

NO · 85/90

AEK ATHENS OR DRAW

61%

NO · 80/85

REAL MADRID OR DRAW

43%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (6 and 11 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

AEK ATHENSxREAL MADRID

5GAMES52.20SCORED A GAME2.200.80CONCEDED A GAME0.803.0GOALS IN THEIR GAMES3.0100%OVER 1.5 GOALS80%60%OVER 2.5 GOALS80%40%BOTH SCORE60%4.6CARDS IN THEIR GAMES5.09.8CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES8.2

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

TRENDS

AEK Athens have scored in 90% of their games.

Real Madrid have scored in 100% of their games.

AEK Athens kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.

Real Madrid kept a clean sheet in 20% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstxG & xGAclean sheetsleague tableteam newscornerscards