Match details. Superliga. Kick-off is Fri 30 Oct, 14:30 Lagos time.
Form. Xorazm Fk Urganch have won none, drawn four and lost six of their last ten, 0.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D D L L. Pakhtakor have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L D D W.
The numbers. Xorazm Fk Urganch score 0.8 and concede 1.6 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and four games without a goal. Xorazm Fk Urganch average 4.0 corners and 1.2 cards a game. Pakhtakor score 1.2 and concede one a game in their last six away, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. Pakhtakor average 5.0 corners and 1.6 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 69%.
The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 69%.
The read. Pakhtakor to win. A tight game. Pakhtakor are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Pakhtakor. Their goals for and against point to a tight game.
The bets. Best bet: Draw or Pakhtakor at 1.16, 68% on the records (Pakhtakor unbeaten in 5 of 6; Xorazm Fk Urganch failed to win 9 of 9). Full cover: Xorazm Fk Urganch Over 0.5 Goals at 1.57. It wins on every score where the best bet loses. Leave: Under 3.5 Goals (Pakhtakor are a clear winner, no Unders); 1X2 - 2UP: Pakhtakor (the signs point different ways); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Xorazm Fk Urganch 0-1 Pakhtakor (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).