LFLEC

16:00Sat 31 Oct

VAR

Leca FC vs Varzim SC

CLASS E

Pick card Full analysis Share

THE BETLIVELY · 10-ODDS · 100-ODDS ·…

TOTAL GOALS

Class E

LFv

Over 1.5 Goals

Leca FC v Varzim SC

Portugal - Liga… · 16:00

1.36odds

74%book

+2edge

2/2angles

THE READ

Match details. Liga Portugal 3, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is Sat 31 Oct, 16:00 Lagos time. It is played at Estadio do Leca Futebol Clube, Leca da Palmeira.

What's at stake. Leca FC are 4th on 10 points after 7 games, level on points with Oliveirense. A win would take them above Oliveirense. Varzim SC are 7th on 9 points after 7 games, -1 points behind Louletano. A win would take them above Louletano.

Form. Leca FC have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W W W. Varzim SC have won four, drawn one and lost five of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L L L.

The numbers. Leca FC score 1.3 and concede one a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and three games without a goal. Leca FC average 11.8 shots (4.5 on target), 5.9 corners and 2.3 cards a game. Varzim SC score 1.8 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. Varzim SC average 8.8 shots (4.4 on target), 3.4 corners and 2.3 cards a game.

The case against. Varzim SC's record still gives them 35% to win.

The read. Leca FC to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make Leca FC the likelier winners; Leca FC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Leca FC. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 55%.

The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.31, 76% on the records (Leca FC: over 1.5 goals in 8 of 10; Varzim SC: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 away). Leave: Over 3.5 Cards (the signs point different ways); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Leca FC 2-1 Varzim SC (10% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

GOALS

Over 0.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

LEC 10 of 10 (100%) · VAR 5 of 5 (100%)92.8%

Leca FC: over 0.5 goals in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Varzim SC: over 0.5 goals in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 100%

Over 1.5 GoalsMAININ CODES

1.36

LEC 8 of 10 (80%) · VAR 4 of 5 (80%)76%

Leca FC: over 1.5 goals in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Varzim SC: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 80%

LECA FC GOALS

Leca FC Over 0.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

LEC 7 of 10 (70%) · VAR 4 of 5 (80%)80.9%

Leca FC scored in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Varzim SC conceded in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 80%

VARZIM SC GOALS

Varzim SC Over 0.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.38

LEC 5 of 5 (100%) · VAR 7 of 10 (70%)65.4%

Varzim SC scored in 5 of 5 away · Leca FC conceded in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 80%

HALVES

1st Half Over 0.5 GoalsHELD · the odds board 70%

1.43

LEC 8 of 9 (89%) · VAR 5 of 5 (100%)94.4%

Leca FC: the bet landed in 8 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · Varzim SC: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 94% · on half-time scores

Left off the list: Over 3.5 Cards (the numbers (60%) and the records (87%) are 26 points apart, and nothing settles it); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10)); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 2–1 9.6%

Leca FC goals →

Varzim SC goals ↓

0-07%

1-010%

2-09%

3-05%

4-02%

5-00.7%

0-16%

1-112%

2-110%

3-15%

4-12%

5-10.7%

0-24%

1-26%

2-25%

3-23%

4-21%

5-20.4%

0-31%

1-32%

2-32%

3-31.0%

4-30.4%

5-30.1%

0-40.3%

1-40.6%

2-40.5%

3-40.3%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.1%

1-50.1%

2-50.1%

3-50.1%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).

FORM · LAST 10

LECA FCDDLWLWWWWL1.70 PPG

VARZIM SCDWWWWLLLLL1.30 PPG

THE NUMBERS

LECA FC HOMExVARZIM SC AWAY

1.30SCORED A GAME1.901.00CONCEDED A GAME1.6030%CLEAN SHEETS10%43%FAILED TO SCORE14%5.90CORNERS A GAME3.402.30CARDS A GAME2.30

THE BANK

THE BANKER MENU

OVER 1.5 CARDS

–

543 OF 573

NO PRICE YET

Both sides' last 5 games point to 5.2+ cards.

Other bets the bookie sells that won 9 times in 10 or more on games like this one, in each of three spells: 20-24 Oct, 25-29 Oct and 30 Oct-2 Nov. The price is low because the bookie expects it too. A bet with no price yet, or one under 1.09, is not in any code.

THE QUALITY READ

1.17POINTS A GAME1.29-0.17GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+0.00+1.5SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST-5.21.2LAST 5: POINTS A GAME0.66LEAGUE GAMES7

Leca FC: the quality side - more shots than it allows.

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

79%

NO · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

54%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

74%

NO · 85/90

LECA FC OR DRAW

53%

NO · 80/85

VARZIM SC OR DRAW

65%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (6 and 7 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

LECA FCxVARZIM SC

5GAMES51.20SCORED A GAME1.601.40CONCEDED A GAME2.002.6GOALS IN THEIR GAMES3.680%OVER 1.5 GOALS80%40%OVER 2.5 GOALS80%20%BOTH SCORE80%–CARDS IN THEIR GAMES––CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES–

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

TRENDS

Leca FC have scored in 70% of their games.

Varzim SC have scored in 90% of their games.

Leca FC kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.

Varzim SC kept a clean sheet in 10% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetsleague tablecornerscards