Match details. Liga de Ascenso. Kick-off is Thu 29 Oct, 22:00 Lagos time.
Form. CD San Marcos de Jiquilisco have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W L D. AD San Rafael have won two, drawn four and lost four of their last ten, 1.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D L L D.
The numbers. CD San Marcos de Jiquilisco score 1.5 and concede two a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets and two games without a goal. CD San Marcos de Jiquilisco average 4.5 corners and 1.7 cards a game. AD San Rafael score 1.6 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet and three games without a goal. AD San Rafael average 6.5 corners and 1.0 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: their goals for and against make AD San Rafael the likelier winners, but both teams' records favour CD San Marcos de Jiquilisco. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 48%.
The read. No side to back. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side.
The bets. No best bet on this one: too close to call. Predicted score: CD San Marcos de Jiquilisco 1-1 AD San Rafael (11% chance).
The agreed story. No side to back (AD San Rafael the favourite), goals in between.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the Model's table).