Match details. Campionato Sammarinese, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is Fri 30 Oct, 21:15 Lagos time.
What's at stake. SP Cailungo are 10th on 4 points after 6 games, 3 points behind Domagnano, level on points with San Giovanni. A win would take them level on points with Domagnano. AC Juvenes/Dogana are 14th on 3 points after 6 games, 1 point behind Pennarossa, level on points with Faetano. A win would take them above Pennarossa.
Form. SP Cailungo have won one, drawn two and lost five of their last eight league games, 0.6 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: D L W L L. AC Juvenes/Dogana have won one, drawn none and lost five of their last six league games, 0.5 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: L L L L L.
The numbers. SP Cailungo score one and concede 1.9 a game over their last eight, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. SP Cailungo average 8.8 shots (2.2 on target), 3.0 corners and 2.2 cards a game. AC Juvenes/Dogana score one and concede 1.3 a game over their last six, with one clean sheet and three games without a goal. AC Juvenes/Dogana average 11.2 shots (4.0 on target), 4.0 corners and 2.8 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings SP Cailungo have won one, drawn two and lost seven. Three of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in five. In the last four, one was drawn and AC Juvenes/Dogana won three. The last time they met, on 1 Feb 2026, it finished SP Cailungo 1-1 AC Juvenes/Dogana.
The case against. SP Cailungo's record still gives them 33% to win.
The read. AC Juvenes/Dogana to win. A tight game. AC Juvenes/Dogana are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour AC Juvenes/Dogana; the meetings favour AC Juvenes/Dogana. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 37%. Seven of the last ten meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: SP Cailungo 0-1 AC Juvenes/Dogana (8% chance).
The agreed story. No side to back (AC Juvenes/Dogana the favourite), a tight game.
The league run. SP Cailungo: up and down in the league (D L W L L). AC Juvenes/Dogana: lost their last two league games (L L L L L). Not confident in AC Juvenes/Dogana: they lost their last two league games.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).