Shabab AL Sahel vs Al Ahed FC
Match details. Premier League, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is Fri 30 Oct, 13:15 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Shabab AL Sahel are 11th on 0 points after 3 games, level on points with Reyady Abaseya, level on points with Al Akhaa Al Ahli. A win would take them above Reyady Abaseya. Al Ahed FC are 4th on 8 points after 4 games, 1 point behind Safa, 1 point clear of Tripoli SC. A win would take them above Safa.
Form. Shabab AL Sahel have won five, drawn one and lost four of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L W W. Al Ahed FC have won four, drawn four and lost two of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W D L.
The numbers. Shabab AL Sahel score 1.8 and concede one a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. Shabab AL Sahel average 6.6 shots (4.1 on target), 3.9 corners and 1.4 cards a game. Al Ahed FC score 1.6 and concede 0.9 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets. Al Ahed FC average 11.2 shots (4.9 on target), 3.1 corners and 2.0 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last nine meetings Shabab AL Sahel have won two, drawn none and lost seven. Seven of the nine went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in four. In the last four, Shabab AL Sahel won one and Al Ahed FC won three. The last time they met, on 28 Jun 2026, it finished Shabab AL Sahel 2-4 Al Ahed FC.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 48%; seven of the last nine meetings went over 2.5, and the meetings settle it.
The case against. Shabab AL Sahel's record still gives them 20% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to a tight game. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 48%.
The read. Al Ahed FC to win. An open game. Al Ahed FC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Al Ahed FC; the meetings favour Al Ahed FC. Seven of the last nine meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Draw or Al Ahed FC at 1.17, 80% on the records (Al Ahed FC unbeaten in 6 of 7; Shabab AL Sahel failed to win 5 of 7). Leave: Under 3.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Al Ahed FC or Under 2.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Shabab AL Sahel 1-2 Al Ahed FC (8% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).