Match details. Liga 1, Clausura - 15. Kick-off is Sun 1 Nov, 21:30 Lagos time. It is played at Estadio Municipal Ambrosio Maco Arroyo, Piura.
What's at stake. Atletico Grau are 11th on 18 points after 14 games, 3 points behind Sport Boys, 1 point clear of Cienciano. A win would take them level on points with Sport Boys. Universitario de Deportes are 3rd on 27 points after 13 games, 1 point behind Sport Huancayo, 1 point clear of FBC Melgar. A win would take them above Sport Huancayo.
Form. Atletico Grau have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D L D L. In this competition Atletico Grau have gone L D L D L W. Universitario de Deportes have won six, drawn three and lost one of their last ten, 2.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W D L W. In this competition Universitario de Deportes have gone W W D L W D.
The numbers. Atletico Grau score 1.2 and concede 0.4 a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets. Atletico Grau average 9.8 shots (3.8 on target), 3.6 corners and 2.8 cards a game, with 44% of the ball. Universitario de Deportes score 2.6 and concede two a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets. Universitario de Deportes average 15.4 shots (6.0 on target), 6.0 corners and 2.1 cards a game, with 51% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings Atletico Grau have won one, drawn three and lost six. Three of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in five. In the last four, Atletico Grau won one, one was drawn and Universitario de Deportes won two. The last time they met, on 26 Jun 2026, it finished Atletico Grau 1-1 Universitario de Deportes: Atletico Grau had 11 shots to 8, 45% of the ball, seven yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 71% against the records' 45%. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 53%; seven of the last ten meetings went under 2.5, and the meetings settle it.
The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to an open game. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 53%.
The read. No firm call: Universitario de Deportes are the better side, but not at this price. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Universitario de Deportes the likelier winners; Universitario de Deportes are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Universitario de Deportes; the meetings favour Universitario de Deportes. Seven of the last ten meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Universitario de Deportes Over 0.5 goals (Atletico Grau's own games don't back it (2 of 5)); Atletico Grau Under 1.5 goals (Universitario de Deportes's own games don't back it (2 of 5)). Predicted score: Atletico Grau 1-1 Universitario de Deportes (12% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).