Ajax vs Alkmaar
Match details. Ajax host Alkmaar in Eredivisie Regular Season - 11 on Sat 31 Oct at 21:00 Lagos time. The match takes place at the Johan Cruijff Arena in Amsterdam, with Allard Lindhout refereeing.
What's at stake. Ajax are 2nd on 21 points after 10 games. They sit three points behind Feyenoord and one point clear of PSV Eindhoven, meaning a win brings them level at the top. Alkmaar are 5th on 20 points after 10 games, level with Twente and two points clear of Fortuna Sittard, looking for a win to go above Twente.
Team news. Ajax are missing S. Adingra due to lacking match fitness, while Caio Henrique has a thigh injury and K. Dolberg has a knee injury. O. Edvardsen is inactive, alongside injured pair A. Gaaei and S. Berghuis. Alkmaar are without injured trio J. Hornkamp, K. Smit and S. Resink, who has a knee injury, while J. Zoet and W. Goes are inactive.
Form. Ajax have won six, drawn three and lost one of their last ten matches, averaging 2.1 points a game. Their last five overall read W W D D W, and they have gone W W D D W W in this competition. Alkmaar have six wins, two draws and two losses from ten, picking up 2.0 points a game, with a recent run of L D L W D and L D L W D W in the league.
The numbers. At home, Ajax score 2.2 and concede 1.8 a game over their last five, keeping zero clean sheets. They average 21.6 shots (8.1 on target), 6.2 corners and 1.9 cards with 61% possession. Alkmaar score 2.2 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five away with one clean sheet, averaging 16.6 shots (6.4 on target), 7.1 corners and 1.5 cards with 60% of the ball.
Head to head. Across the last ten meetings, Ajax have won none, drawn three and lost seven. Five of those ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in five. Alkmaar won two and drew two of the last four. They last met on 8 Feb 2026 in a 1-1 draw, where Ajax had 11 shots to 13, 62% possession and three yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways for me here. Their goals for and against make Ajax the likelier winners, and Ajax are also the stronger side on form and in the table. However, both teams' records favour Alkmaar, and the head-to-head meetings favour Alkmaar as well.
The case against. Looking at the case against, Alkmaar's record still gives them a 45% chance to win. That said, the head-to-head meetings do not back them.
The read. Ajax to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make Ajax the likelier winners, and they are the stronger side on form and the table, though both teams' records and head-to-head meetings favour Alkmaar. Their goals for and against point to an open game, and their records put over 2.5 goals at 62%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.12, 79% on the records (Ajax: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home; Alkmaar: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5 away). Backup: 2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5 at 1.13. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (Ajax are a clear winner, no Unders); Under 5.5 Goals (Ajax are a clear winner, no Unders). Predicted score: Ajax 2-1 Alkmaar (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).