RB Leipzig vs Man City
Match details. UEFA Champions League, League Stage - 4. Kick-off is Wed 4 Nov, 21:00 Lagos time. It is played at Leipzig Red Bull Arena. The referee is Marco Guida.
What's at stake. RB Leipzig are 28th on 3 points after 3 games, level on points with AEK Athens FC, level on points with Villarreal. A win would take them above AEK Athens FC. Man City are 12th on 6 points after 3 games, level on points with Como, level on points with Club Brugge KV. A win would take them above Como.
Team news. RB Leipzig are without M. Finkgrafe (thigh injury), M. Guiu (hamstring injury), A. Ouedraogo (shoulder injury), L. Zingerle (off the roster), M. Finkgrafe (thigh injury), M. Guiu (hamstring injury). Man City are without A. Semenyo (knee injury), A. Semenyo (knee injury).
Form. RB Leipzig have won six, drawn none and lost four of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W L L. Man City have won six, drawn one and lost three of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D L W W.
The numbers. RB Leipzig score 2.3 and concede 1.7 a game over their last ten, with five clean sheets. RB Leipzig average 12.5 shots (5.7 on target), 4.9 corners and 1.6 cards a game, with 43% of the ball. Man City score 2.7 and concede 1.5 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets. Man City average 14.8 shots (5.5 on target), 6.0 corners and 1.4 cards a game, with 61% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last six meetings RB Leipzig have won one, drawn one and lost four. Five of the six went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in five. In the last four, one was drawn and Man City won three. The last time they met, on 28 Nov 2023, it finished RB Leipzig 2-3 Man City: RB Leipzig had 5 shots to 14, 30% of the ball, one yellow card.
The case against. RB Leipzig's record still gives them 37% to win.
The read. Man City to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make Man City the likelier winners; Man City are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Man City; the meetings favour Man City. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 75%. Five of the last six meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.10, 79% on the records (RB Leipzig: over 1.5 goals in 9 of 10; Man City: over 1.5 goals in 8 of 10). Backup: 2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5 at 1.10. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); 2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 1.5 (the signs point different ways); Man City Over 0.5 goals (RB Leipzig's own games don't back it (5 of 10)). Predicted score: RB Leipzig 1-2 Man City (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).