Match details. UEFA Champions League, League Stage - 4. Kick-off is Wed 4 Nov, 21:00 Lagos time. It is played at Philips Stadion, Eindhoven. The referee is Irfan Peljto.
What's at stake. PSV Eindhoven are 21st on 4 points after 3 games, level on points with Shakhtar Donetsk, level on points with Atletico Madrid. A win would take them above Shakhtar Donetsk. Club Brugge are 13th on 6 points after 3 games, level on points with Manchester City, level on points with Inter. A win would take them above Manchester City.
Team news. PSV Eindhoven are without S. Lammers (lacking match fitness), A. Nagalo (injury), S. Ouaissa (muscle injury), A. Plea (surgery), J. Schouten (knee injury), P. Wanner (foot injury). Club Brugge are without J. Ordonez (foot injury), J. Ordonez (foot injury).
Form. PSV Eindhoven have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W L L. Club Brugge have won nine, drawn none and lost one of their last ten, 2.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W W W.
The numbers. PSV Eindhoven score three and concede 0.6 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. PSV Eindhoven average 13.8 shots (5.0 on target), 5.6 corners and 2.4 cards a game, with 57% of the ball. Club Brugge score 2.8 and concede 1.2 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets. Club Brugge average 15.7 shots (7.4 on target), 6.5 corners and 2.2 cards a game, with 56% of the ball.
The case against. Club Brugge's record still gives them 50% to win.
The read. PSV Eindhoven or the draw. A draw is live. An open game. Club Brugge are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Club Brugge. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 62%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.10, 76% on the records (PSV Eindhoven: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home; Club Brugge: over 1.5 goals in 8 of 10). Backup: 2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5 at 1.12. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Over 0.5 first-half goals (the signs point different ways). Predicted score: PSV Eindhoven 2-1 Club Brugge (8% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).