Borussia Dortmund vs Betis
Match details. UEFA Champions League, League Stage - 4. Kick-off is Wed 4 Nov, 21:00 Lagos time. It is played at Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund. The referee is Serdar Gozubuyuk.
What's at stake. Borussia Dortmund are 16th on 6 points after 3 games, level on points with Lask Linz, level on points with Manchester United. A win would take them above Lask Linz. Betis are 7th on 9 points after 3 games, level on points with Sporting CP, 1 point clear of Bayern München. A win would take them above Sporting CP.
Team news. Borussia Dortmund are without E. Can (knee injury), G. Konstantelias (knee injury), J. Lerma (muscle injury), E. Can (knee injury), G. Konstantelias (knee injury), J. Lerma (muscle injury). Betis are without A. Fidalgo (illness), J. Firpo (groin injury), C. Hernandez (calf injury), I. Losada (coach's decision), A. Fidalgo (illness), J. Firpo (groin injury).
Form. Borussia Dortmund have won six, drawn three and lost one of their last ten, 2.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W W W D. Betis have won seven, drawn two and lost one of their last ten, 2.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W L W.
The numbers. Borussia Dortmund score 2.4 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. Borussia Dortmund average 13.3 shots (5.5 on target), 6.9 corners and 1.7 cards a game, with 53% of the ball. Betis score two and concede 1.4 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets. Betis average 16.1 shots (6.5 on target), 5.1 corners and 2.0 cards a game, with 53% of the ball.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 66%.
The case against. Betis's record still gives them 37% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to a tight game.
The read. Borussia Dortmund or the draw. An open game. Their goals for and against make Borussia Dortmund the likelier winners. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 66%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.16, 75% on the records (Borussia Dortmund: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home; Betis: over 1.5 goals in 7 of 10). Backup: 2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5 at 1.17. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Borussia Dortmund 2-1 Betis (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).