Villarreal vs PSG
Villarreal scored under 1.5 in 3 of 5 at home · PSG conceded under 1.5 in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 55% · each game weighed by who it was against
Match details. UEFA Champions League, League Stage - 4. Kick-off is Tue 3 Nov, 21:00 Lagos time. It is played at Estadio de la Cerámica, Villarreal. The referee is Felix Zwayer.
What's at stake. Villarreal are 19th on 3 points after 3 games, 1 point behind PSV Eindhoven, level on points with Inter. A win would take them above PSV Eindhoven. PSG are 1st on 9 points after 3 games, level on points with Aston Villa.
Team news. Villarreal are without I. Akhomach (muscle injury), J. Foyth (muscle injury), G. Moreno (muscle injury), I. Akhomach (muscle injury), J. Foyth (muscle injury), G. Moreno (muscle injury). PSG are without O. Dembele (thigh injury), K. Kvaratskhelia (knee injury), Marquinhos (thigh injury), N. Mendes (muscle injury), O. Dembele (thigh injury), K. Kvaratskhelia (knee injury).
Form. Villarreal have won five, drawn one and lost four of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W L D. PSG have won nine, drawn none and lost one of their last ten, 2.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W W W.
The numbers. Villarreal score 1.4 and concede one a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Villarreal average 14.8 shots (6.3 on target), 6.2 corners and 2.0 cards a game, with 49% of the ball. PSG score three and concede one a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. PSG average 19.7 shots (9.7 on target), 4.6 corners and 0.7 cards a game, with 55% of the ball.
The case against. Villarreal's record still gives them 21% to win.
The read. PSG to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make PSG the likelier winners; PSG are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour PSG. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 74%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.11, 77% on the records (Villarreal: over 1.5 goals in 3 of 5 at home; PSG: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 away). Full cover: Villarreal Under 1.5 Goals at 1.54. It wins on every score where the best bet loses. Leave: PSG or Over 2.5 Goals (the signs point different ways); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Over/Under & GG/NG: Over 2.5 & Yes (the signs point different ways). Predicted score: Villarreal 1-2 PSG (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).