Man Utd vs Roma
Match details. UEFA Champions League, League Stage - 4. Kick-off is Tue 3 Nov, 21:00 Lagos time. It is played at Old Trafford, Manchester. The referee is Jesus Gil Manzano.
What's at stake. Man Utd are 21st on 3 points after 3 games, level on points with Inter, level on points with Napoli. A win would take them above Inter. Roma are 15th on 4 points after 3 games, 1 point behind Bayern München, level on points with Atletico Madrid. A win would take them above Bayern München.
Team news. Man Utd are without P. Dorgu (hamstring injury), M. Rashford (hip injury), B. Sesko (leg injury), L. Shaw (injury), M. Ugarte (knee injury), P. Dorgu (hamstring injury). Roma are without P. Dybala (calf injury), M. Kone (muscle injury), L. Pellegrini (thigh injury), M. Svilar (toe injury), P. Dybala (calf injury), M. Kone (muscle injury).
Form. Man Utd have won one, drawn three and lost six of their last ten, 0.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L D L. Roma have won five, drawn four and lost one of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W D W W.
The numbers. Man Utd score 1.4 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Man Utd average 14.2 shots (4.6 on target), 5.8 corners and 2.5 cards a game, with 48% of the ball. Roma score 2.2 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets. Roma average 14.7 shots (5.6 on target), 5.6 corners and 2.2 cards a game, with 62% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last two meetings Man Utd have won one, drawn none and lost one. Two of the two went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in two. The last time they met, on 6 May 2021, it finished Man Utd 2-3 Roma: Man Utd had 13 shots to 22, 48% of the ball, six yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 48%.
The case against. Roma's record still gives them 54% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 48%.
The read. Man Utd or the draw. A draw is live. An open game. Roma are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Roma. Their goals for and against point to an open game.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.15, 76% on the records (Man Utd: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home; Roma: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 away). Backup: 2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5 at 1.16. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Man Utd or Over 1.5 Goals (no side to back); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Man Utd 2-1 Roma (8% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).