INTERNATIONAL CLUBS - UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE

BGBOD

21:00Tue 3 Nov

LIL

LIL

Bodoe/Glimt vs Lille

CLASS A

Pick card Full analysis Share

THE READ

Match details. No1, League Stage - 4. Kick-off is Tue 3 Nov, 21:00 Lagos time. It is played at Aspmyra Stadion, Hakata. The referee is Joao Pinheiro.

What's at stake. Bodoe/Glimt are 28th on 3 points after 3 games, level on points with Lens, level on points with AEK Athens FC. A win would take them above Lens. Lille are 35th on 0 points after 3 games, level on points with FC Porto, level on points with Slovan Bratislava. A win would take them above FC Porto.

Team news. Bodoe/Glimt are without H. Evjen (knee injury), A. Mikkelsen (groin injury), I. Sjong (injury), H. Evjen (knee injury), A. Mikkelsen (groin injury), I. Sjong (injury). Lille are without N. Bentaleb (illness), H. Igamane (knee injury), E. Mbappe (red card), T. Santos (knee injury), A. Ueda (foot injury), N. Bentaleb (illness).

Form. Bodoe/Glimt have won six, drawn none and lost four of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L W W. Lille have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D L D L.

The numbers. Bodoe/Glimt score two and concede 1.2 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. Bodoe/Glimt average 14.5 shots (5.6 on target), 5.3 corners and 0.7 cards a game, with 50% of the ball. Lille score 1.2 and concede 1.4 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets. Lille average 9.8 shots (4.4 on target), 3.9 corners and 1.8 cards a game, with 48% of the ball.

The case against. Lille's record still gives them 32% to win.

The read. Bodoe/Glimt to win. A draw is live. An open game. Their goals for and against make Bodoe/Glimt the likelier winners; Bodoe/Glimt are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Bodoe/Glimt. Their xG points to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 53%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: 1X2 - 2UP: Bodoe/Glimt (the signs point different ways). Predicted score: Bodoe/Glimt 2-1 Lille (9% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

Bodoe/Glimt (Draw No Bet)PAGE ONLY

1.47

BOD 4 of 5 (80%) · LIL 4 of 8 (50%)73.3%

Bodoe/Glimt won 4 of 5 at home (draws left out) · Lille lost 4 of 8 (last 10, all venues) (draws left out) · both last 10: 57% · each game weighed by who it was against · won 6, refunded 1, lost 2

Bodoe/Glimt or Draw (1UP)IN CODES

1.19

BOD 4 of 5 (80%) · LIL 4 of 5 (80%)72.8%

Bodoe/Glimt scored first 4 of last 5, led or was unbeaten in 4 · led or was unbeaten in 4 of 5 at home · Lille trailed or failed to win in 5 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · each game weighed by who it was against

Bodoe/Glimt 1UPLEANPAGE ONLY

1.41

BOD 4 of 5 (80%) · LIL 4 of 5 (80%)69.3%

Bodoe/Glimt scored first 4 of last 5, led in 4 · led in 4 of 5 at home · Lille trailed in 4 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · each game weighed by who it was against

HALVES

2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5PAGE ONLY

1.16

BOD 4 of 5 (80%) · LIL 9 of 10 (90%)85.3%

Bodoe/Glimt: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · Lille: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 85% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against

Under 1.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY

1.71

BOD 4 of 5 (80%) · LIL 8 of 10 (80%)72.7%

Bodoe/Glimt: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · Lille: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 63% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against

Over 0.5 first-half goalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.27

BOD 3 of 5 (60%) · LIL 7 of 10 (70%)67.5%

Bodoe/Glimt: the bet landed in 3 of 5 at home · Lille: the bet landed in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 71% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against

Left off the list: 1X2 - 2UP: Bodoe/Glimt (the numbers (49%) and the records (69%) are on opposite sides, and nothing settles it)

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 2–1 9.1%

Bodoe/Glimt goals →

Lille goals ↓

0-04%

1-06%

2-06%

3-04%

4-02%

5-00.7%

0-15%

1-110%

2-19%

3-16%

4-13%

5-11%

0-24%

1-27%

2-27%

3-24%

4-22%

5-20.8%

0-32%

1-33%

2-33%

3-32%

4-31.0%

5-30.4%

0-40.7%

1-41%

2-41%

3-40.8%

4-40.4%

5-40.1%

0-50.2%

1-50.4%

2-50.4%

3-50.2%

4-50.1%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).

FORM · LAST 10

BODOE/GLIMTLWLWWWWLLW1.80 PPG

LILLEWLWLWLDLDW1.40 PPG

THE NUMBERS

BODOE/GLIMT HOMExLILLE AWAY

2.20SCORED A GAME1.201.90CONCEDED A GAME1.4020%CLEAN SHEETS40%14%FAILED TO SCORE33%5.30CORNERS A GAME3.900.70CARDS A GAME1.801.40xG1.081.68xG AGAINST1.72

THE BANK

THE QUALITY READ

2.57POINTS A GAME2.00+1.50GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+0.67+8.4SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST-1.61.8LAST 5: POINTS A GAME1.614LEAGUE GAMES9

No quality side: neither club is ahead on more of these.

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

87%

VERY GOOD · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

83%

VERY GOOD · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

56%

NO · 85/90

BODOE/GLIMT OR DRAW

74%

NO · 80/85

LILLE OR DRAW

36%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (14 and 9 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

BODOE/GLIMTxLILLE

5GAMES51.80SCORED A GAME1.001.20CONCEDED A GAME0.803.0GOALS IN THEIR GAMES1.880%OVER 1.5 GOALS60%60%OVER 2.5 GOALS20%60%BOTH SCORE60%3.4CARDS IN THEIR GAMES4.28.2CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES9.0

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

TEAM NEWS

BODOE/GLIMT

Out: H. Evjen (Knee Injury), A. Mikkelsen (Groin Injury), I. Sjong (Injury), H. Evjen (Knee Injury), A. Mikkelsen (Groin Injury), I. Sjong (Injury)

LILLE

Out: N. Bentaleb (Illness), H. Igamane (Knee Injury), E. Mbappe (Red Card), T. Santos (Knee Injury), A. Ueda (Foot Injury), N. Bentaleb (Illness)

TRENDS

Bodoe/Glimt have scored in 80% of their games.

Lille have scored in 90% of their games.

Bodoe/Glimt kept a clean sheet in 20% of their games.

Lille kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstxG & xGAclean sheetsleague tableteam newscornerscards