INTERNATIONAL CLUBS - UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE

SDSHA

18:45Tue 3 Nov

SPO

SPO

Shakhtar D vs Sporting

CLASS A

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THE BETLIVELY · 10-ODDS · 100-ODDS ·…

TOTAL GOALS

Class A

SDv

SPO

Under 3.5 Goals

Shakhtar D v Sporting

International Clubs -… · 18:45

1.51odds

66%book

+9edge

2/2angles

THE READ

Match details. UEFA Champions League, League Stage - 4. Kick-off is Tue 3 Nov, 18:45 Lagos time. It is played at Stamford Bridge, London, a neutral ground. The referee is Ivan Kruzliak.

What's at stake. Shakhtar D are 17th on 4 points after 3 games, level on points with Atletico Madrid, level on points with PSV Eindhoven. A win would take them above Atletico Madrid. Sporting are 12th on 6 points after 3 games, level on points with Club Brugge KV, level on points with Borussia Dortmund. A win would take them above Club Brugge KV.

Team news. Shakhtar D are without Eguinaldo (shoulder injury), V. Korniyenko (off the roster), Marlon (muscle injury), Pedrinho (muscle injury), T. Puzankov (off the roster), M. Shved (off the roster). Sporting are without S. Alexandropoulos (off the roster), Z. Debast (injury), N. Santos (knee injury), S. Alexandropoulos (off the roster), Z. Debast (injury), N. Santos (knee injury).

Form. Shakhtar D have won eight, drawn one and lost one of their last ten, 2.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W D L W. Sporting have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L L W.

The numbers. Shakhtar D score 2.1 and concede 0.3 a game over their last ten, with seven clean sheets and two games without a goal. Shakhtar D average 15.0 shots (6.4 on target), 6.6 corners and 1.8 cards a game, with 52% of the ball. Sporting score two and concede 1.1 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets. Sporting average 12.8 shots (5.1 on target), 5.0 corners and 2.2 cards a game, with 48% of the ball.

The case against. Shakhtar D's record still gives them 49% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their xG points to an open game. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 60%.

The read. Sporting or the draw. A draw is live. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Shakhtar D the likelier winners; Shakhtar D are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Shakhtar D.

The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.51, 75% on the records (Shakhtar D: under 3.5 goals in 9 of 10; Sporting: under 3.5 goals in 6 of 10). Backup: Under 4.5 Goals at 1.20. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Sporting Over 0.5 goals (Shakhtar D's own games don't back it (3 of 10)); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Shakhtar D 1-1 Sporting (11% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

GOALS

Under 4.5 GoalsBACKUPIN CODES

1.20

SHA 10 of 10 (100%) · SPO 9 of 10 (90%)91.2%

Shakhtar D: under 4.5 goals in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Sporting: under 4.5 goals in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 95% · each game weighed by who it was against

Over 1.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.21

88.3%

a proven pattern for games read like this one (over 1.5)

Under 3.5 GoalsMAININ CODES

1.51

SHA 9 of 10 (90%) · SPO 6 of 10 (60%)75.1%

Shakhtar D: under 3.5 goals in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Sporting: under 3.5 goals in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 75% · each game weighed by who it was against

SHAKHTAR D GOALS

Shakhtar D Over 0.5 goalsLEANIN CODES

1.35

SHA 8 of 10 (80%) · SPO 7 of 10 (70%)56%

Shakhtar D scored in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Sporting conceded in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 74% · each game weighed by who it was against

HALVES

2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5PAGE ONLY

1.21

SHA 8 of 10 (80%) · SPO 10 of 10 (100%)89.4%

Shakhtar D: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Sporting: the bet landed in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 89% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against

Left off the list: Sporting Over 0.5 goals (Shakhtar D's own games don't back it (3 of 10)); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–1 10.8%

Shakhtar D goals →

Sporting goals ↓

0-05%

1-08%

2-08%

3-05%

4-03%

5-01.0%

0-15%

1-111%

2-110%

3-16%

4-13%

5-11%

0-23%

1-26%

2-26%

3-24%

4-22%

5-20.7%

0-31%

1-32%

2-32%

3-31%

4-30.7%

5-30.3%

0-40.4%

1-40.7%

2-40.7%

3-40.4%

4-40.2%

5-40.1%

0-50.1%

1-50.2%

2-50.2%

3-50.1%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).

FORM · LAST 10

SHAKHTAR DWWWWWWLDWW2.50 PPG

SPORTINGWWDDWWLLWW2.00 PPG

THE NUMBERS

SHAKHTAR D HOMExSPORTING AWAY

2.10SCORED A GAME2.000.30CONCEDED A GAME1.1070%CLEAN SHEETS30%33%FAILED TO SCORE0%6.56CORNERS A GAME5.001.78CARDS A GAME2.200.88xG2.230.96xG AGAINST1.36

THE BANK

THE QUALITY READ

2.38POINTS A GAME2.00+1.25GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+1.11+7.8SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST+6.12.6LAST 5: POINTS A GAME1.68LEAGUE GAMES9

Shakhtar D: the quality side - better form (last 5).

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

87%

VERY GOOD · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

63%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

91%

VERY GOOD · 85/90

SHAKHTAR D OR DRAW

65%

NO · 80/85

SPORTING OR DRAW

71%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (8 and 9 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

SHAKHTAR DxSPORTING

6GAMES51.50SCORED A GAME2.400.50CONCEDED A GAME0.802.0GOALS IN THEIR GAMES3.283%OVER 1.5 GOALS100%33%OVER 2.5 GOALS60%17%BOTH SCORE60%3.0CARDS IN THEIR GAMES–9.2CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES–

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

TEAM NEWS

SHAKHTAR D

Out: Eguinaldo (Shoulder Injury), V. Korniyenko (Off the roster), Marlon (Muscle Injury), Pedrinho (Muscle Injury), T. Puzankov (Off the roster), M. Shved (Off the roster)

SPORTING

Out: S. Alexandropoulos (Off the roster), Z. Debast (Injury), N. Santos (Knee Injury), S. Alexandropoulos (Off the roster), Z. Debast (Injury), N. Santos (Knee Injury)

TRENDS

Shakhtar D have scored in 80% of their games.

Sporting have scored in 100% of their games.

Shakhtar D kept a clean sheet in 70% of their games.

Sporting kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstxG & xGAclean sheetsleague tableteam newscornerscards