Match details. 2. Lig, 2. Lig Red Group - 9. Kick-off is Sun 1 Nov, 13:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Belediye Kutahyaspor are 11th on 7 points after 8 games, 3 points behind 12 Bingölspor, 1 point clear of Ankaragücü. A win would take them level on points with 12 Bingölspor. Karacabey Belediyespor are 8th on 11 points after 7 games, level on points with Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor, 1 point clear of Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı. A win would take them above Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor.
Form. Belediye Kutahyaspor have won two, drawn one and lost five of their last eight, 0.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D L L L. In this competition Belediye Kutahyaspor have gone W D L L L L. Karacabey Belediyespor have won three, drawn two and lost two of their last seven, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L D W L. In this competition Karacabey Belediyespor have gone W L D W L W.
The numbers. Belediye Kutahyaspor score 1.2 and concede 2.1 a game over their last eight, with one clean sheet and three games without a goal. Karacabey Belediyespor score 1.3 and concede 1.7 a game over their last seven, with two clean sheets.
Head to head. In the last three meetings Belediye Kutahyaspor have won two, drawn none and lost one. Two of the three went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in two. The last time they met, on 11 Feb 2017, it finished Belediye Kutahyaspor 2-1 Karacabey Belediyespor.
The case against. Belediye Kutahyaspor's record still gives them 32% to win.
The read. Karacabey Belediyespor to win. An open game. Karacabey Belediyespor are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Karacabey Belediyespor. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 61%. Two of the last three meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Karacabey Belediyespor or Over 2.5 Goals (the signs point different ways); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Belediye Kutahyaspor 1-2 Karacabey Belediyespor (8% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).