Jubbah Club vs AL Arabi (SA)
Match details. Second Division, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is Thu 29 Oct, 13:30 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Jubbah Club are 22nd on 2 points after 3 games, level on points with Al Jubail, level on points with Al Baten. A win would take them above Al Jubail. AL Arabi (SA) are 15th on 4 points after 3 games, level on points with Arar, 1 point clear of Najran. A win would take them above Arar.
Form. Jubbah Club have won two, drawn four and lost four of their last ten, 1.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D L D W. AL Arabi (SA) have won two, drawn three and lost five of their last ten, 0.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L W L L.
The numbers. Jubbah Club score 1.8 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five at home, with no clean sheets. AL Arabi (SA) score 1.3 and concede 2.3 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. AL Arabi (SA) average 8.5 shots (3.2 on target), 4.7 corners and 2.5 cards a game.
The case against. AL Arabi (SA)'s record still gives them 30% to win.
The read. Jubbah Club to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make Jubbah Club the likelier winners; Jubbah Club are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 72%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: AL Arabi (SA) or Over 2.5 Goals (the call backs Jubbah Club); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Jubbah Club 2-1 AL Arabi (SA) (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).