Match details. State Cup, Round of 64. Kick-off is Wed 28 Oct, 18:30 Lagos time. It is played at Nesher Stadium.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Ironi Nesher have won seven, drawn two and lost one of their last ten, 2.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W L W. In this competition Ironi Nesher have gone W. Hapoel Nir Ramat Hasharon FC have won five, drawn three and lost two of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W D W. In this competition Hapoel Nir Ramat Hasharon FC have gone W.
The numbers. Ironi Nesher score 3.5 and concede 0.5 a game in their last six at home, with three clean sheets. Hapoel Nir Ramat Hasharon FC score 1.2 and concede one a game in their last five away, with three clean sheets.
Head to head. In the last six meetings Ironi Nesher have won none, drawn two and lost four. One of the six went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in one. In the last four, Hapoel Nir Ramat Hasharon FC won four. The last time they met, on 18 May 2018, it finished Ironi Nesher 0-5 Hapoel Nir Ramat Hasharon FC.
Where it pulls both ways. Ironi Nesher are the form side, but the meetings favour Hapoel Nir Ramat Hasharon FC: in the last six meetings, Hapoel Nir Ramat Hasharon FC won four and two were drawn. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 45%; five of the last six meetings went under 2.5, and the meetings settle it.
The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to an open game.
The read. No side to back. A tight game. Form and the meetings point different ways, so I back neither side. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 45%. Five of the last six meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Ironi Nesher 2-0 Hapoel Nir Ramat Hasharon FC (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).