ACANT

20:00Thu 29 Oct

AGU

Antequera CF vs Aguilas FC

CLASS D

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THE READ

Match details. Copa del Rey, Round of 128. Kick-off is Thu 29 Oct, 20:00 Lagos time.

What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.

Form. Antequera CF have won three, drawn five and lost two of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L D D W. Aguilas FC have won one, drawn five and lost four of their last ten, 0.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L D L L.

The numbers. Antequera CF score two and concede one a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. Antequera CF average 10.2 shots (3.9 on target), 4.2 corners and 3.2 cards a game. Aguilas FC score 0.9 and concede 1.5 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and three games without a goal. Aguilas FC average 12.7 shots (4.1 on target), 5.0 corners and 3.6 cards a game.

Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 44%.

The case against. A knockout game (Round of 128) with penalties if level, and Antequera CF are not clearly stronger.

The read. Antequera CF or the draw. Their goals for and against make Antequera CF the likelier winners; Antequera CF are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Antequera CF.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Antequera CF 1-1 Aguilas FC (12% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

Antequera CF or Draw (1UP)IN CODES

1.24

ANT 5 of 5 (100%) · AGU 7 of 8 (88%)92.1%

Antequera CF scored first 4 of last 5, led or was unbeaten in 5 · led or was unbeaten in 7 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · Aguilas FC trailed or failed to win in 8 of 9 (last 10, all venues)

Antequera CF or Both Teams ScoreTAKEN DOWNPAGE ONLY

1.25

ANT 5 of 5 (100%) · AGU 8 of 9 (89%)87.5%

Antequera CF: the bet landed in 5 of 5 at home · Aguilas FC: the bet landed in 8 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 89% · Antequera CF: only games against sides at Aguilas FC's level · Aguilas FC: only games against sides at Antequera CF's level · the call is Antequera CF or the draw: a knockout game (Round of 128) with penalties if level, and Antequera CF are not clearly stronger (rule 8)

Antequera CF or Over 1.5 GoalsTAKEN DOWNPAGE ONLY

no price yet

ANT 5 of 5 (100%) · AGU 8 of 9 (89%)87.5%

Antequera CF or Under 2.5 GoalsTAKEN DOWNPAGE ONLY

1.23

ANT 5 of 5 (100%) · AGU 7 of 9 (78%)85.9%

Antequera CF: the bet landed in 5 of 5 at home · Aguilas FC: the bet landed in 7 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 74% · Antequera CF: only games against sides at Aguilas FC's level · Aguilas FC: only games against sides at Antequera CF's level · the call is Antequera CF or the draw: a knockout game (Round of 128) with penalties if level, and Antequera CF are not clearly stronger (rule 8)

Antequera CF (Draw No Bet)PAGE ONLY

1.56

ANT 3 of 5 (60%) · AGU 4 of 5 (80%)80.1%

Antequera CF won 3 of 5 (last 10, all venues) (draws left out) · Aguilas FC lost 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) (draws left out) · both last 10: 70% · Antequera CF: only games against sides at Aguilas FC's level · Aguilas FC: only games against sides at Antequera CF's level · won 5, refunded 4, lost 0

Antequera CF 1UPTAKEN DOWNPAGE ONLY

1.58

ANT 4 of 5 (80%) · AGU 6 of 8 (75%)73.9%

Antequera CF scored first 4 of last 5, led in 4 · led in 6 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · Aguilas FC trailed in 6 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · the call is Antequera CF or the draw: a knockout game (Round of 128) with penalties if level, and Antequera CF are not clearly stronger (rule 8)

Antequera CF or Over 2.5 GoalsTAKEN DOWNPAGE ONLY

1.44

ANT 3 of 5 (60%) · AGU 6 of 9 (67%)61.6%

Antequera CF: the bet landed in 3 of 5 at home · Aguilas FC: the bet landed in 6 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 63% · Antequera CF: only games against sides at Aguilas FC's level · Aguilas FC: only games against sides at Antequera CF's level · the call is Antequera CF or the draw: a knockout game (Round of 128) with penalties if level, and Antequera CF are not clearly stronger (rule 8)

Antequera CF to WinTAKEN DOWNPAGE ONLY

2.05

ANT 3 of 5 (60%) · AGU 4 of 9 (44%)60.2%

Antequera CF won 3 of 5 at home · Aguilas FC lost 4 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 37% · Antequera CF: only games against sides at Aguilas FC's level · Aguilas FC: only games against sides at Antequera CF's level · the call is Antequera CF or the draw: a knockout game (Round of 128) with penalties if level, and Antequera CF are not clearly stronger (rule 8)

GOALS

Under 4.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.10

ANT 4 of 5 (80%) · AGU 8 of 9 (89%)88.2%

Antequera CF: under 4.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home · Aguilas FC: under 4.5 goals in 8 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 84% · Antequera CF: only games against sides at Aguilas FC's level · Aguilas FC: only games against sides at Antequera CF's level

BOTH TEAMS SCORE

Both Teams to Score - YesLEANPAGE ONLY

1.79

ANT 4 of 5 (80%) · AGU 6 of 9 (67%)44.7%

Antequera CF: both scored in 4 of 5 at home · Aguilas FC: both scored in 6 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 73% · Antequera CF: only games against sides at Aguilas FC's level · Aguilas FC: only games against sides at Antequera CF's level

ANTEQUERA CF GOALS

Antequera CF Over 0.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.27

ANT 5 of 5 (100%) · AGU 8 of 9 (89%)78.3%

Antequera CF scored in 5 of 5 at home · Aguilas FC conceded in 8 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 89% · Antequera CF: only games against sides at Aguilas FC's level · Aguilas FC: only games against sides at Antequera CF's level

AGUILAS FC GOALS

Aguilas FC Over 0.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.41

ANT 7 of 9 (78%) · AGU 4 of 5 (80%)53.7%

Aguilas FC scored in 7 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · Antequera CF conceded in 4 of 5 at home · both last 10: 84% · Aguilas FC: only games against sides at Antequera CF's level · Antequera CF: only games against sides at Aguilas FC's level

HALVES

1st Half Under 1.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

1.40

ANT 4 of 5 (80%) · AGU 7 of 9 (78%)77.2%

Antequera CF: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · Aguilas FC: the bet landed in 7 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 74% · on half-time scores · Antequera CF: only games against sides at Aguilas FC's level · Aguilas FC: only games against sides at Antequera CF's level

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–1 11.9%

Antequera CF goals →

Aguilas FC goals ↓

0-07%

1-011%

2-010%

3-06%

4-03%

5-00.9%

0-16%

1-112%

2-110%

3-16%

4-12%

5-10.8%

0-23%

1-25%

2-25%

3-23%

4-21%

5-20.4%

0-31.0%

1-32%

2-31%

3-30.9%

4-30.4%

5-30.1%

0-40.2%

1-40.4%

2-40.4%

3-40.2%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.0%

1-50.1%

2-50.1%

3-50.0%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call).

FORM · LAST 10

ANTEQUERA CFWWLDDWDDLD1.40 PPG

AGUILAS FCDDLWDLLDLD0.80 PPG

THE NUMBERS

ANTEQUERA CF HOMExAGUILAS FC AWAY

1.70SCORED A GAME0.901.40CONCEDED A GAME1.5010%CLEAN SHEETS20%11%FAILED TO SCORE22%4.25CORNERS A GAME5.003.25CARDS A GAME3.56

THE BANK

THE BANKER MENU

OVER 1.5 CARDS

–

718 OF 767

NO PRICE YET

The Bank expects 4.5+ cards.

Other bets the bookie sells that won 9 times in 10 or more on games like this one, in each of three spells: 20-24 Oct, 25-29 Oct and 30 Oct-2 Nov. The price is low because the bookie expects it too. A bet with no price yet, or one under 1.09, is not in any code.

THE QUALITY READ

1.22POINTS A GAME0.78+0.11GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME-0.67-0.6SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST+2.51.2LAST 5: POINTS A GAME0.49LEAGUE GAMES9

Antequera CF: the quality side - a better goal difference, better form (last 5).

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

86%

VERY GOOD · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

44%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

83%

NO · 85/90

ANTEQUERA CF OR DRAW

95%

VERY GOOD · 80/85

AGUILAS FC OR DRAW

50%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (9 and 9 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

ANTEQUERA CFxAGUILAS FC

5GAMES51.60SCORED A GAME1.001.40CONCEDED A GAME2.003.0GOALS IN THEIR GAMES3.0100%OVER 1.5 GOALS80%40%OVER 2.5 GOALS60%80%BOTH SCORE80%–CARDS IN THEIR GAMES––CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES–

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

TRENDS

Antequera CF have scored in 90% of their games.

Aguilas FC have scored in 70% of their games.

Antequera CF kept a clean sheet in 10% of their games.

Aguilas FC kept a clean sheet in 20% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetscornerscards