Match details. Copa del Rey, Round of 128. Kick-off is Thu 29 Oct, 19:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. UD San Sebastian Reyes have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L W L. CD Coria have won three, drawn three and lost four of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W L L D.
The numbers. UD San Sebastian Reyes score 1.4 and concede 0.4 a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets. UD San Sebastian Reyes average 6.4 shots (2.4 on target), 5.7 corners and 1.6 cards a game. CD Coria score 0.7 and concede 1.5 a game in their last six away, with two clean sheets and three games without a goal. CD Coria average 7.9 shots (3.6 on target), 3.8 corners and 3.1 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last four meetings UD San Sebastian Reyes have won one, drawn three and lost none. Two of the four went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in three. The last time they met, on 1 Mar 2026, it finished UD San Sebastian Reyes 1-1 CD Coria.
The case against. A knockout game (Round of 128) with penalties if level, and UD San Sebastian Reyes are not clearly stronger.
The read. UD San Sebastian Reyes or the draw. A tight game. Their goals for and against make UD San Sebastian Reyes the likelier winners; UD San Sebastian Reyes are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour UD San Sebastian Reyes. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 42%.
The bets. Best bet: UD San Sebastian Reyes or Draw at 1.39, 87% on the records (UD San Sebastian Reyes unbeaten in 5 of 5 at home; CD Coria failed to win 5 of 6 away). Backup: 1st Half - GG/NG: No at 1.18. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); UD San Sebastian Reyes or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); 1X2 - 2UP: UD San Sebastian Reyes (the signs point different ways). Predicted score: UD San Sebastian Reyes 1-0 CD Coria (15% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).