UCUBC

20:00Thu 29 Oct

CDC

UB Conquense vs CD Castellon

CLASS A

THE READ

Match details. UB Conquense face CD Castellon in the Copa del Rey Round of 128. Kick-off is set for Thu 29 Oct at 20:00 Lagos time. The match takes place at Estadio Municipal La Fuensanta in Cuenca.

What's at stake. It is a one-off game, with penalties deciding who goes through if it is level.

Form. UB Conquense have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, getting 1.7 points a game. Their last five matches read W D W L W. CD Castellon have won seven, drawn two and lost one of their last ten, taking 2.3 points a game with W W L D W in their last five.

The numbers. At home, UB Conquense score 1.8 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five, keeping two clean sheets. They average 10.6 shots (4.5 on target), 5.0 corners and 2.5 cards a game. CD Castellon score 1.8 and concede 0.6 a game in their last five away, also with two clean sheets. They average 15.6 shots (5.8 on target), 5.0 corners and 1.4 cards, keeping 61% of the ball.

Head to head. The last time they met, on 5 Sep 2018, it finished UB Conquense 0-1 CD Castellon.

Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game. Still, their records put over 2.5 goals at 58%.

The case against. UB Conquense are not out of it entirely. Their record still gives them a 30% chance to win.

The read. CD Castellon to win. CD Castellon are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour CD Castellon.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: CD Castellon 1UP (the signs point different ways); 1X2 - 2UP: CD Castellon (the signs point different ways); UB Conquense Under 1.5 goals (UB Conquense's own games don't back it (2 of 5)). Predicted score: UB Conquense 0-1 CD Castellon (8% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

CD Castellon or Over 1.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

UBC 4 of 5 (80%) · CDC 4 of 5 (80%)84%

CD Castellon: the bet landed in 4 of 5 away · UB Conquense: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · both last 10: 85%

CD Castellon or Over 2.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

1.34

UBC 4 of 5 (80%) · CDC 4 of 5 (80%)81%

CD Castellon: the bet landed in 4 of 5 away · UB Conquense: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · both last 10: 75%

CD Castellon win or both teams scoreIN CODES

1.17

UBC 4 of 5 (80%) · CDC 3 of 5 (60%)75.2%

CD Castellon: the bet landed in 4 of 5 away · UB Conquense: the bet landed in 3 of 5 at home · both last 10: 75%

CD Castellon or Draw (1UP)IN CODES

1.13

UBC 4 of 5 (80%) · CDC 4 of 5 (80%)74.2%

CD Castellon scored first 3 of last 5, led or was unbeaten in 4 · led or was unbeaten in 4 of 5 away · UB Conquense trailed or failed to win in 5 of 8 (last 10, all venues)

CD Castellon or Under 2.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

1.12

UBC 5 of 5 (100%) · CDC 2 of 5 (40%)72.9%

CD Castellon: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · UB Conquense: the bet landed in 2 of 5 at home · both last 10: 75%

Double Chance: Draw or CD CastellonLEANHELD · the odds board 85%

1.17

UBC 4 of 5 (80%) · CDC 3 of 5 (60%)62.9%

CD Castellon unbeaten in 4 of 5 away · UB Conquense failed to win 3 of 5 at home · both last 10: 70%

GOALS

Over 1.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

1.30

UBC 4 of 5 (80%) · CDC 4 of 5 (80%)75.1%

UB Conquense: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home · CD Castellon: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 80%

CD CASTELLON GOALS

CD Castellon Over 0.5 goalsPAGE ONLY

1.17

UBC 4 of 5 (80%) · CDC 3 of 5 (60%)71%

CD Castellon scored in 4 of 5 away · UB Conquense conceded in 3 of 5 at home · both last 10: 75%

HALVES

Under 1.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY

1.43

UBC 5 of 5 (100%) · CDC 4 of 5 (80%)86.7%

UB Conquense: the bet landed in 5 of 5 at home · CD Castellon: the bet landed in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 80% · on half-time scores

Left off the list: CD Castellon 1UP (the numbers (46%) and the records (74%) are on opposite sides, and nothing settles it); 1X2 - 2UP: CD Castellon (the numbers (31%) and the records (70%) are on opposite sides, and nothing settles it); UB Conquense Under 1.5 goals (UB Conquense's own games don't back it (2 of 5)); Over 0.5 first-half goals (the numbers (61%) and the records (87%) are 26 points apart, and nothing settles it); Under 4.5 Goals (CD Castellon are a clear winner - no Unders); Under 5.5 Goals (CD Castellon are a clear winner - no Unders)

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 0–1 8.5%

UB Conquense goals →

CD Castellon goals ↓

0-09%

1-011%

2-08%

3-04%

4-01%

5-00.3%

0-18%

1-113%

2-19%

3-14%

4-11%

5-10.4%

0-25%

1-27%

2-25%

3-22%

4-20.8%

5-20.2%

0-32%

1-33%

2-32%

3-30.8%

4-30.3%

5-30.1%

0-40.5%

1-40.7%

2-40.5%

3-40.2%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.1%

1-50.2%

2-50.1%

3-50.1%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call).

FORM · LAST 10

UB CONQUENSELLDWWWLWDW1.70 PPG

CD CASTELLONDWWWWWDLWW2.30 PPG

THE NUMBERS

UB CONQUENSE HOMExCD CASTELLON AWAY

1.80SCORED A GAME2.101.20CONCEDED A GAME0.4030%CLEAN SHEETS60%0%FAILED TO SCORE18%5.00CORNERS A GAME5.002.50CARDS A GAME1.38

THE BANK

THE BANKER MENU

DRAW OR CD CASTELLON (1UP)

–

137 OF 146

NO PRICE YET

The tips call a clear winner and every tip has the favourite winning by 2+.

OVER 1.5 CARDS

–

718 OF 767

NO PRICE YET

The Bank expects 4.5+ cards.

Other bets the bookie sells that won 9 times in 10 or more on games like this one, in each of three spells: 20-24 Oct, 25-29 Oct and 30 Oct-2 Nov. The price is low because the bookie expects it too. A bet with no price yet, or one under 1.09, is not in any code.

THE QUALITY READ

1.83POINTS A GAME2.44+0.67GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+1.89+3.6SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST+2.72.0LAST 5: POINTS A GAME2.06LEAGUE GAMES9

CD Castellon: the quality side - more points a game, a better goal difference.

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

94%

VERY GOOD · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

73%

OKAY · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

87%

OKAY · 85/90

UB CONQUENSE OR DRAW

58%

NO · 80/85

CD CASTELLON OR DRAW

81%

OKAY · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (6 and 9 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

UB CONQUENSExCD CASTELLON

5GAMES52.20SCORED A GAME2.001.40CONCEDED A GAME0.403.6GOALS IN THEIR GAMES2.4100%OVER 1.5 GOALS80%80%OVER 2.5 GOALS40%80%BOTH SCORE20%–CARDS IN THEIR GAMES5.8–CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES8.4

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

HEAD TO HEAD · LAST 1

UB CONQUENSE 0 · 0%DRAW 0CD CASTELLON 1 · 100%

2018-09-05UB Conquense 0 – 1 CD Castellon

TRENDS

UB Conquense have scored in 80% of their games.

CD Castellon have scored in 80% of their games.

UB Conquense kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.

CD Castellon kept a clean sheet in 60% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetshead to headcornerscards