CD Varea vs FC Andorra
Match details. This Copa del Rey Round of 128 tie kicks off on Thu 29 Oct at 20:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. CD Varea have won four, drawn five and lost one of their last ten, taking 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W D W. FC Andorra have won two, drawn one and lost seven of their last ten, averaging 0.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W D W.
The numbers. CD Varea score 0.6 and concede 0.4 a game in their last five at home, with four clean sheets and two games without a goal. They average 13.0 shots (4.0 on target), 5.3 corners and 4.3 cards a game. FC Andorra score one and concede 1.8 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet and three games without a goal. They average 11.9 shots (4.8 on target), 5.2 corners and 3.0 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree here: the odds board makes it 8% against the records' 58%.
The read. No firm call: CD Varea are the better side, but not at this price. A tight game. CD Varea are the stronger side on form and the table, and both teams' records favour CD Varea. Their goals for and against point to a tight game, and their records put over 2.5 goals at 22%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: FC Andorra or Under 2.5 Goals (the call backs CD Varea); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: CD Varea 1-0 FC Andorra (14% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).