CLCDL

20:00Thu 29 Oct

BUR

CD Laredo vs Burgos CF

CLASS A

THE READ

Match details. Copa del Rey, Round of 128. Kick-off is Thu 29 Oct, 20:00 Lagos time. It is played at Campo San Lorenzo, Laredo.

What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.

Form. CD Laredo have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W W W. Burgos CF have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L L W.

The numbers. CD Laredo score 1.8 and concede 0.5 a game over their last ten, with seven clean sheets and three games without a goal. CD Laredo average 12.0 shots (3.7 on target), 6.0 corners and 3.7 cards a game. Burgos CF score 1.2 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Burgos CF average 12.1 shots (4.0 on target), 4.1 corners and 2.9 cards a game, with 46% of the ball.

The case against. CD Laredo's record still gives them 48% to win.

The read. Burgos CF or the draw. A tight game. Their goals for and against make CD Laredo the likelier winners; CD Laredo are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour CD Laredo. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 48%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: CD Laredo 1-1 Burgos CF (13% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

GOALS

Under 4.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.13

CDL 9 of 10 (90%) · BUR 4 of 5 (80%)90%

CD Laredo: under 4.5 goals in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Burgos CF: under 4.5 goals in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 90%

Under 3.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

1.36

CDL 8 of 10 (80%) · BUR 4 of 5 (80%)77.5%

CD Laredo: under 3.5 goals in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Burgos CF: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 75%

CD LAREDO GOALS

CD Laredo Over 0.5 goalsLEANIN CODES

1.69

CDL 7 of 10 (70%) · BUR 4 of 5 (80%)61.2%

CD Laredo scored in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Burgos CF conceded in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 70%

HALVES

Under 1.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY

1.47

CDL 8 of 10 (80%) · BUR 4 of 5 (80%)78.3%

CD Laredo: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Burgos CF: the bet landed in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 75% · on half-time scores

Over 0.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY

1.35

CDL 7 of 10 (70%) · BUR 4 of 5 (80%)75%

CD Laredo: the bet landed in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Burgos CF: the bet landed in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 75% · on half-time scores

Left off the list: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–1 12.7%

CD Laredo goals →

Burgos CF goals ↓

0-010%

1-014%

2-011%

3-06%

4-02%

5-00.7%

0-17%

1-113%

2-19%

3-15%

4-12%

5-10.5%

0-23%

1-25%

2-24%

3-22%

4-20.8%

5-20.2%

0-30.9%

1-31%

2-31%

3-30.6%

4-30.2%

5-30.1%

0-40.2%

1-40.3%

2-40.2%

3-40.1%

4-40.0%

5-40.0%

0-50.0%

1-50.0%

2-50.0%

3-50.0%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).

FORM · LAST 10

CD LAREDODDLWWWWWWL2.00 PPG

BURGOS CFLDDWWWLLWW1.70 PPG

THE NUMBERS

CD LAREDO HOMExBURGOS CF AWAY

1.80SCORED A GAME1.300.50CONCEDED A GAME1.0070%CLEAN SHEETS30%12%FAILED TO SCORE27%6.00CORNERS A GAME4.123.67CARDS A GAME2.88

THE BANK

THE BANKER MENU

OVER 1.5 CARDS

–

543 OF 573

NO PRICE YET

Both sides' last 5 games point to 5.2+ cards.

Other bets the bookie sells that won 9 times in 10 or more on games like this one, in each of three spells: 20-24 Oct, 25-29 Oct and 30 Oct-2 Nov. The price is low because the bookie expects it too. A bet with no price yet, or one under 1.09, is not in any code.

TRENDS

CD Laredo have scored in 70% of their games.

Burgos CF have scored in 70% of their games.

CD Laredo kept a clean sheet in 70% of their games.

Burgos CF kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetscornerscards