Match details. Liga de Ascenso. Kick-off is Wed 28 Oct, 22:00 Lagos time.
Form. Csd Vendaval have won none, drawn three and lost seven of their last ten, 0.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L D L D. CD Fuerte Aguilares have won one, drawn three and lost six of their last ten, 0.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L L L D.
The numbers. Csd Vendaval score 0.6 and concede two a game over their last ten, with one clean sheet and five games without a goal. Csd Vendaval average 3.5 corners and 2.7 cards a game. CD Fuerte Aguilares score one and concede 2.2 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. CD Fuerte Aguilares average 4.2 corners and 2.6 cards a game.
The case against. Csd Vendaval's record still gives them 30% to win.
The read. CD Fuerte Aguilares to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make CD Fuerte Aguilares the likelier winners; CD Fuerte Aguilares are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 53%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Csd Vendaval 1-2 CD Fuerte Aguilares (9% chance).
The agreed story. CD Fuerte Aguilares or the draw, an open game.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).