Porongos de Trinidad vs Deportivo Maldonado
Match details. Copa Uruguay, Round of 16. Kick-off is Thu 29 Oct, 00:30 Lagos time. It is played at Estadio Juan Antonio Lavalleja, Trinidad.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Porongos de Trinidad have won two, drawn none and lost three of their last five, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W L W. Deportivo Maldonado have won four, drawn none and lost none of their last four, 3.0 points a game. Their last four, newest first: W W W W.
The numbers. Porongos de Trinidad score 1.2 and concede 2.2 a game over their last five, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Deportivo Maldonado score three and concede 0.8 a game over their last four, with one clean sheet.
The case against. A knockout game (Round of 16) with penalties if level, and Deportivo Maldonado are not clearly stronger.
The read. Deportivo Maldonado or the draw. Their goals for and against make Deportivo Maldonado the likelier winners; Deportivo Maldonado are the stronger side on form and the table.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Porongos de Trinidad 1-2 Deportivo Maldonado (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call).