Atletico Madrid B vs AD Alcorcon
Match details. Primera Federacion, Group 2 - 10. Kick-off is Fri 30 Oct, 21:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Atletico Madrid B are 14th on 10 points after 9 games, 1 point behind Antequera, 1 point clear of Sant Andreu. A win would take them above Antequera. AD Alcorcon are 6th on 14 points after 9 games, 1 point behind FC Cartagena, level on points with Gimnastic. A win would take them above FC Cartagena.
Form. Atletico Madrid B have won two, drawn four and lost four of their last ten, 1.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L D L L. AD Alcorcon have won three, drawn six and lost one of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D L W W.
The numbers. Atletico Madrid B score two and concede 1.8 a game in their last six at home, with one clean sheet. Atletico Madrid B average 12.7 shots (6.0 on target), 4.6 corners and 2.6 cards a game. AD Alcorcon score 1.2 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets. AD Alcorcon average 13.7 shots (6.9 on target), 4.9 corners and 2.2 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last four meetings Atletico Madrid B have won three, drawn one and lost none. Two of the four went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in two. The last time they met, on 7 Feb 2026, it finished Atletico Madrid B 0-0 AD Alcorcon.
Where it pulls both ways. AD Alcorcon are the form side, but the meetings favour Atletico Madrid B: in the last four meetings, Atletico Madrid B won three and one was drawn. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 29% against the records' 53%.
The read. No side to back. An open game. Form and the meetings point different ways, so I back neither side. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 58%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.17, 83% on the records (Atletico Madrid B: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home; AD Alcorcon: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 away). Leave: Atletico Madrid B or Over 2.5 Goals (no result call); AD Alcorcon or Over 2.5 Goals (no result call); AD Alcorcon or Over 1.5 Goals (no result call). Predicted score: Atletico Madrid B 2-1 AD Alcorcon (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).