NK Zvijezda Gradacac vs FK Velez Mostar
Match details. Kup BiH, Round of 32. Kick-off is Wed 28 Oct, 13:00 Lagos time. It is played at Stadion Banja Ilidza, Gradacac.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. NK Zvijezda Gradacac have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L D W. FK Velez Mostar have won two, drawn two and lost six of their last ten, 0.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D L W L.
The numbers. NK Zvijezda Gradacac score two and concede 0.8 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. FK Velez Mostar score 0.4 and concede 2.6 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets and three games without a goal.
Head to head. In the last six meetings NK Zvijezda Gradacac have won two, drawn two and lost two. Two of the six went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in two. In the last four, NK Zvijezda Gradacac won two, one was drawn and FK Velez Mostar won one. The last time they met, on 6 Apr 2019, it finished NK Zvijezda Gradacac 1-0 FK Velez Mostar.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 31% against the records' 60%. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 41%; four of the last six meetings went under 2.5, and the meetings settle it.
The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to an open game.
The read. No firm call: NK Zvijezda Gradacac are the better side, but not at this price. A tight game. Their goals for and against make NK Zvijezda Gradacac the likelier winners; NK Zvijezda Gradacac are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour NK Zvijezda Gradacac. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 41%. Four of the last six meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: FK Velez Mostar Over 0.5 Goals (FK Velez Mostar's own games don't back it (2 of 5)); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: NK Zvijezda Gradacac 2-0 FK Velez Mostar (12% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).