Baglan Dragons vs Treowen Stars
Match details. Cymru Championship South, South - 13. Kick-off is Fri 30 Oct, 20:30 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Baglan Dragons are 5th on 17 points after 11 games, 2 points behind Caerau (Ely), 1 point clear of Ynyshir Albions. A win would take them above Caerau (Ely). Treowen Stars are 11th on 13 points after 10 games, 1 point behind Caerphilly Athletic, 2 points clear of Llantwit Major. A win would take them above Caerphilly Athletic.
Form. Baglan Dragons have won five, drawn one and lost three of their last nine, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W L L W. In this competition Baglan Dragons have gone D W L L W L. Treowen Stars have won four, drawn one and lost five of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L D W. In this competition Treowen Stars have gone L L L D W L.
The numbers. Baglan Dragons score 1.4 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five at home, with no clean sheets. Baglan Dragons average 6.0 corners and 2.0 cards a game. Treowen Stars score 2.2 and concede 2.4 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. Treowen Stars average 6.5 corners and 3.2 cards a game.
Head to head. Treowen Stars have won all of the last two meetings. Two of the two went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in two. The last time they met, on 17 Mar 2026, it finished Baglan Dragons 1-4 Treowen Stars.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: Baglan Dragons are the stronger side on form and the table, but both teams' records favour Treowen Stars.
The read. No side to back. An open game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 69%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.16, 88% on the records (Baglan Dragons: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home; Treowen Stars: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5 away). Backup: 2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5 at 1.15. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Baglan Dragons or Over 2.5 Goals (no result call); Baglan Dragons or Both Teams Score (no result call); Baglan Dragons or Draw & Over 1.5 (no result call). Predicted score: Baglan Dragons 2-1 Treowen Stars (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).