Olympia Yerevan vs FC Ararat-Armenia
Match details. Armenian Cup, Round of 16. Kick-off is Thu 29 Oct, 12:30 Lagos time.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Olympia Yerevan have won seven, drawn two and lost none of their last nine, 2.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W W W W. FC Ararat-Armenia have won five, drawn one and lost four of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W L D.
The numbers. Olympia Yerevan score 2.8 and concede 0.4 a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets. FC Ararat-Armenia score 1.4 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets. FC Ararat-Armenia average 12.3 shots (3.3 on target), 3.3 corners and 2.3 cards a game, with 43% of the ball.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 19% against the records' 66%.
The read. No firm call: Olympia Yerevan are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Olympia Yerevan the likelier winners; Olympia Yerevan are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Olympia Yerevan. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 70%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Olympia Yerevan 2-1 FC Ararat-Armenia (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).