Erbil SC vs Ghaz Al-Shamal SC
Match details. Stars League, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is Fri 30 Oct, 17:30 Lagos time. It is played at Franso Hariri Stadium, Arbil.
What's at stake. Erbil SC are 6th on 18 points after 11 games, 2 points behind Al-Jolan SC, level on points with Al Zawra'a. A win would take them above Al-Jolan SC. Ghaz Al-Shamal SC are 10th on 14 points after 11 games, 1 point behind Duhok, level on points with Al Talaba. A win would take them above Duhok.
Form. Erbil SC have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L D W L. In this competition Erbil SC have gone L L D W L W. Ghaz Al-Shamal SC have won three, drawn five and lost two of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L D D. In this competition Ghaz Al-Shamal SC have gone W W L D D D.
The numbers. Erbil SC score 1.2 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. Erbil SC average 4.5 corners and 2.6 cards a game. Ghaz Al-Shamal SC score 0.6 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. Ghaz Al-Shamal SC average 4.1 corners and 2.5 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 62% against the records' 30%.
The read. No firm call: Erbil SC are the better side, but not at this price. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Erbil SC the likelier winners; Erbil SC are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 12%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Erbil SC 1-1 Ghaz Al-Shamal SC (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).