Match details. UEFA Champions League, League Stage - 4. Kick-off is Tue 3 Nov, 18:45 Lagos time. It is played at Rams Park, Istanbul. The referee is Chris Kavanagh.
What's at stake. Galatasaray Istanbul are 23rd on 3 points after 3 games, level on points with Napoli, level on points with Lask Linz. A win would take them above Napoli. Stuttgart are 6th on 7 points after 3 games, 2 points behind Real Betis, level on points with Arsenal. A win would take them above Real Betis.
Team news. Galatasaray Istanbul are without E. Aydin (off the roster), K. Ayhan (off the roster), C. Guner (off the roster), K. Karatas (off the roster), A. Unyay (off the roster), A. Yilmaz (off the roster). Stuttgart are without J. Diehl (muscle injury), S. Drljaca (off the roster), L. Sauer (muscle injury), L. Stergiou (off the roster), A. Stiller (groin injury), J. Vagnoman (muscle injury).
Form. Galatasaray Istanbul have won seven, drawn none and lost three of their last ten, 2.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W W L. Stuttgart have won five, drawn one and lost four of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L D L.
The numbers. Galatasaray Istanbul score two and concede 1.7 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets. Galatasaray Istanbul average 15.0 shots (6.2 on target), 7.1 corners and 2.3 cards a game, with 45% of the ball. Stuttgart score 1.8 and concede 0.8 a game in their last six away, with three clean sheets. Stuttgart average 14.2 shots (5.1 on target), 6.2 corners and 1.4 cards a game, with 60% of the ball.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: their goals for and against make Stuttgart the likelier winners, but Galatasaray Istanbul are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Galatasaray Istanbul.
The case against. Stuttgart's record still gives them 46% to win.
The read. Galatasaray Istanbul or the draw. A draw is live. An open game. Their goals for and against make Stuttgart the likelier winners; Galatasaray Istanbul are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Galatasaray Istanbul. Their xG points to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 65%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Galatasaray Istanbul Over 0.5 goals (Stuttgart's own games don't back it (3 of 6)); Galatasaray Istanbul 1UP (the signs point different ways); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Galatasaray Istanbul 2-1 Stuttgart (7% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).