Match details. J3 League, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is Sat 31 Oct, 08:00 Lagos time. It is played at Nagano U Stadium.
What's at stake. AC Nagano Parceiro are 11th on 17 points after 13 games, level on points with Kanazawa, 1 point clear of Kitakyushu. A win would take them above Kanazawa. Mio Biwako Shiga are 17th on 14 points after 13 games, level on points with Tochigi SC, 1 point clear of Thespakusatsu Gunma. A win would take them above Tochigi SC.
Form. AC Nagano Parceiro have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W W L. In this competition AC Nagano Parceiro have gone L L W W L L. Mio Biwako Shiga have won two, drawn two and lost six of their last ten, 0.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L D D. In this competition Mio Biwako Shiga have gone L L L D D L.
The numbers. AC Nagano Parceiro score 0.8 and concede one a game in their last six at home, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Mio Biwako Shiga score 1.1 and concede 1.7 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and four games without a goal.
Head to head. In the last four meetings AC Nagano Parceiro have won two, drawn two and lost none. Four of the four went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in four. The last time they met, on 21 Jul 2013, it finished AC Nagano Parceiro 5-1 Mio Biwako Shiga.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 57%; four of the last four meetings went over 2.5.
The case against. Mio Biwako Shiga's record still gives them 30% to win.
The read. AC Nagano Parceiro to win. Their goals for and against make AC Nagano Parceiro the likelier winners; AC Nagano Parceiro are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour AC Nagano Parceiro.
The bets. Best bet: AC Nagano Parceiro or Draw at 1.53, 74% on the records (AC Nagano Parceiro unbeaten in 3 of 6 at home; Mio Biwako Shiga failed to win 8 of 10). Backup: Under 4.5 Goals at 1.12. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Predicted score: AC Nagano Parceiro 1-0 Mio Biwako Shiga (11% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call).