Match details. CONCACAF Central American Cup. Kick-off is Thu 29 Oct, 01:30 Lagos time.
Form. Deportivo Saprissa San Jose have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D L W L. CD Luis Angel Firpo Usulutan have won five, drawn four and lost one of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D W W D.
The numbers. Deportivo Saprissa San Jose score 1.7 and concede 1.3 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets and three games without a goal. Deportivo Saprissa San Jose average 14.0 shots (4.7 on target), 6.1 corners and 2.4 cards a game. CD Luis Angel Firpo Usulutan score 1.8 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. CD Luis Angel Firpo Usulutan average 15.5 shots (5.8 on target), 5.7 corners and 2.7 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 19% against the records' 60%. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 46%.
The read. No firm call: CD Luis Angel Firpo Usulutan are the better side, but not at this price. CD Luis Angel Firpo Usulutan are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour CD Luis Angel Firpo Usulutan.
The bets. No bet on this one: too close to call. Leave: Deportivo Saprissa San Jose Under 1.5 goals (Deportivo Saprissa San Jose's own games don't back it (3 of 7)). Predicted score: Deportivo Saprissa San Jose 1-1 CD Luis Angel Firpo Usulutan (11% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the Model's table).