DCDIR

15:50Fri 30 Oct

NEO

Diriyah Club vs Neom SC

CLASS A

THE READ

Match details. Saudi Pro League, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is Fri 30 Oct, 15:50 Lagos time. It is played at Prince Turki bin Abdul Aziz Stadium, Riyadh.

What's at stake. Diriyah Club are 8th on 15 points after 11 games, 3 points behind Al-Ettifaq, level on points with Al Khaleej Saihat. A win would take them level on points with Al-Ettifaq. Neom SC are 6th on 19 points after 11 games, 2 points behind Al-Ahli Jeddah, 1 point clear of Al-Ettifaq. A win would take them above Al-Ahli Jeddah.

Form. Diriyah Club have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W D L D. In this competition Diriyah Club have gone L W D L D W. Neom SC have won five, drawn one and lost four of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L D W. In this competition Neom SC have gone W L L D W W.

The numbers. Diriyah Club score 0.6 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. Diriyah Club average 12.1 shots (3.0 on target), 5.1 corners and 2.8 cards a game, with 48% of the ball. Neom SC score one and concede 0.6 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. Neom SC average 12.4 shots (3.8 on target), 5.6 corners and 1.8 cards a game, with 55% of the ball.

The case against. Diriyah Club's record still gives them 33% to win.

The read. Neom SC or the draw. A draw is live. A tight game. Neom SC are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 8%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Diriyah Club 1-1 Neom SC (14% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

Neom SC or Draw (1UP)LEANPAGE ONLY

1.34

DIR 3 of 5 (60%) · NEO 3 of 5 (60%)66.7%

Neom SC scored first 2 of last 5, led or was unbeaten in 3 · led or was unbeaten in 3 of 5 away · Diriyah Club trailed or failed to win in 4 of 5 at home

GOALS

Under 4.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.14

DIR 5 of 5 (100%) · NEO 5 of 5 (100%)89.7%

Diriyah Club: under 4.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home · Neom SC: under 4.5 goals in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 95% · Diriyah Club: only games against sides at Neom SC's level · Neom SC: only games against sides at Diriyah Club's level

NEOM SC GOALS

Neom SC Over 0.5 goalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.28

DIR 3 of 5 (60%) · NEO 3 of 5 (60%)61.1%

Neom SC scored in 3 of 5 away · Diriyah Club conceded in 3 of 5 at home · both last 10: 60% · Neom SC: only games against sides at Diriyah Club's level · Diriyah Club: only games against sides at Neom SC's level

HALVES

Under 1.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY

1.46

DIR 5 of 5 (100%) · NEO 4 of 5 (80%)85%

Diriyah Club: the bet landed in 5 of 5 at home · Neom SC: the bet landed in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 75% · on half-time scores · Diriyah Club: only games against sides at Neom SC's level · Neom SC: only games against sides at Diriyah Club's level

CARDS

Over 2.5 CardsIN CODES

1.18

DIR 6 of 8 (75%) · NEO 7 of 8 (88%)81.3%

Diriyah Club's games: over 2.5 cards in 6 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · Neom SC's games: over 2.5 cards in 7 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 81% · Diriyah Club: only games against sides at Neom SC's level · Neom SC: only games against sides at Diriyah Club's level

Left off the list: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–1 13.5%

Diriyah Club goals →

Neom SC goals ↓

0-09%

1-010%

2-08%

3-03%

4-01%

5-00.3%

0-19%

1-114%

2-19%

3-14%

4-11%

5-10.4%

0-25%

1-27%

2-25%

3-22%

4-20.8%

5-20.2%

0-32%

1-33%

2-32%

3-30.8%

4-30.3%

5-30.1%

0-40.6%

1-40.8%

2-40.5%

3-40.2%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.1%

1-50.2%

2-50.1%

3-50.1%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).

FORM · LAST 10

DIRIYAH CLUBWDWLWDLDWL1.50 PPG

NEOM SCWLLWWWDLLW1.60 PPG

THE NUMBERS

DIRIYAH CLUB HOMExNEOM SC AWAY

0.90SCORED A GAME1.401.00CONCEDED A GAME0.8040%CLEAN SHEETS40%45%FAILED TO SCORE36%5.12CORNERS A GAME5.622.75CARDS A GAME1.751.55xG1.291.57xG AGAINST1.06

THE BANK

THE BANKER MENU

OVER 1.5 CARDS

–

718 OF 767

NO PRICE YET

The Bank expects 4.5+ cards.

BOTH HALVES OVER 1.5: NO

–

138 OF 151

NO PRICE YET

The tips say a tight game and the Bank expects under 2.3 goals.

Other bets the bookie sells that won 9 times in 10 or more on games like this one, in each of three spells: 20-24 Oct, 25-29 Oct and 30 Oct-2 Nov. The price is low because the bookie expects it too. A bet with no price yet, or one under 1.09, is not in any code.

THE QUALITY READ

1.50POINTS A GAME1.60-0.10GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+0.60-0.9SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST+0.31.0LAST 5: POINTS A GAME1.410LEAGUE GAMES10

Neom SC: the quality side - a better goal difference.

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

66%

NO · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

17%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

96%

VERY GOOD · 85/90

DIRIYAH CLUB OR DRAW

71%

NO · 80/85

NEOM SC OR DRAW

71%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (10 and 10 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

DIRIYAH CLUBxNEOM SC

5GAMES50.60SCORED A GAME1.000.80CONCEDED A GAME0.601.4GOALS IN THEIR GAMES1.660%OVER 1.5 GOALS60%0%OVER 2.5 GOALS0%40%BOTH SCORE20%5.2CARDS IN THEIR GAMES–8.4CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES–

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

TRENDS

Diriyah Club have scored in 60% of their games.

Neom SC have scored in 60% of their games.

Diriyah Club kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games.

Neom SC kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstxG & xGAclean sheetsleague tablecornerscards