Match details. Gaucho, Serie A2. Kick-off is Thu 29 Oct, 00:00 Lagos time.
Form. Gremio Esportivo Brasil have won three, drawn one and lost two of their last six league games, 1.7 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: L W W D L. Passo Fundo have won four, drawn two and lost none of their last six league games, 2.3 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: D W W W D.
The numbers. Gremio Esportivo Brasil score one and concede 0.8 a game over their last six, with four clean sheets and two games without a goal. Gremio Esportivo Brasil average 5.5 corners and 3.0 cards a game. Passo Fundo score 1.7 and concede 0.7 a game over their last six, with two clean sheets. Passo Fundo average 4.5 corners and 1.9 cards a game.
The read. No side to back. A tight game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 23%.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.16, rated 88% (Gremio Esportivo Brasil: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home; Passo Fundo: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 5 away). Predicted score: Gremio Esportivo Brasil 1-0 Passo Fundo (15% chance).
The agreed story. No side to back (Gremio Esportivo Brasil the favourite), a tight game.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).