Fatih Karagumruk Istanbul vs Somaspor
Match details. Turkiye Kupasi, 3rd Round. Kick-off is Wed 28 Oct, 13:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Fatih Karagumruk Istanbul have won three, drawn four and lost three of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L D W. Somaspor have won three, drawn one and lost six of their last ten, 1.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L W W. In this competition Somaspor have gone W.
The numbers. Fatih Karagumruk Istanbul score 1.2 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five at home, with no clean sheets. Fatih Karagumruk Istanbul average 15.6 shots (4.4 on target), 4.0 corners and 2.0 cards a game, with 54% of the ball. Somaspor score 1.2 and concede 2.6 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. Somaspor average 5.0 shots (2.6 on target), 3.0 corners and 2.0 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 68% against the records' 42%.
The read. No firm call: Fatih Karagumruk Istanbul are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Fatih Karagumruk Istanbul the likelier winners; Fatih Karagumruk Istanbul are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 60%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Fatih Karagumruk Istanbul 2-1 Somaspor (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).