Austria Lustenau vs Sturm Graz
Match details. OFB Cup, Round of 16. Kick-off is Thu 29 Oct, 18:00 Lagos time. It is played at Planet Pure Stadion, Lustenau, a neutral ground.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Austria Lustenau have won three, drawn one and lost six of their last ten, 1.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L W L. In this competition Austria Lustenau have gone W. Sturm Graz have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W W L W. In this competition Sturm Graz have gone W.
The numbers. Austria Lustenau score 1.7 and concede 2.5 a game over their last ten, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Austria Lustenau average 11.3 shots (3.7 on target), 4.7 corners and 2.4 cards a game, with 42% of the ball. Sturm Graz score 1.8 and concede 1.4 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and three games without a goal. Sturm Graz average 15.1 shots (5.1 on target), 5.6 corners and 3.0 cards a game, with 41% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last six meetings Austria Lustenau have won none, drawn one and lost five. One of the six went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in one. In the last four, one was drawn and Sturm Graz won three. The last time they met, on 22 Aug 2026, it finished Austria Lustenau 1-1 Sturm Graz: Austria Lustenau had 17 shots to 13, 37% of the ball, six yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their xG points to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 65%; five of the last six meetings went under 2.5, and the meetings settle it.
The case against. A knockout game (Round of 16) with penalties if level, and Sturm Graz are not clearly stronger. Austria Lustenau's record still gives them 21% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their xG points to an open game. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 65%.
The read. Sturm Graz or the draw. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Sturm Graz the likelier winners; Sturm Graz are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Sturm Graz; the meetings favour Sturm Graz. Five of the last six meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Draw or Sturm Graz at 1.11, 79% on the records (Sturm Graz unbeaten in 4 of 6; Austria Lustenau failed to win 7 of 9). Backup: 2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5 at 1.15. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Sturm Graz or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Austria Lustenau 1-1 Sturm Graz (11% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).