Frosinone vs Torino
Match details. Serie A, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is Sun 1 Nov, 15:00 Lagos time. It is played at PSC Arena, Frosinone. The referee is Giuseppe Mucera.
What's at stake. Frosinone are 6th on 17 points after 9 games, 3 points behind Como, 3 points clear of Napoli. A win would take them level on points with Como. Torino are 10th on 13 points after 9 games, 1 point behind Juventus, level on points with Cagliari. A win would take them above Juventus.
Team news. Frosinone are without F. Grillitsch (thigh injury), F. Grillitsch (thigh injury). Torino are without N. Fortini (thigh injury), F. Israel (shoulder injury), R. Mandragora (muscle injury), R. Rodriguez (thigh injury), A. Cacciamani (shoulder injury), N. Fortini (thigh injury).
Form. Frosinone have won five, drawn three and lost two of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W L W. Torino have won four, drawn one and lost five of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W W D.
The numbers. Frosinone score 2.8 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. Frosinone average 17.2 shots (6.3 on target), 6.2 corners and 1.8 cards a game, with 47% of the ball. Torino score 1.4 and concede 1.5 a game over their last ten, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Torino average 9.6 shots (3.5 on target), 3.9 corners and 0.9 cards a game, with 49% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last six meetings Frosinone have won none, drawn two and lost four. Four of the six went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in four. In the last four, two were drawn and Torino won two. The last time they met, on 21 Apr 2024, it finished Frosinone 0-0 Torino: Frosinone had 12 shots to 13, 47% of the ball, four yellow cards.
The case against. Torino's record still gives them 41% to win.
The read. Frosinone to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make Frosinone the likelier winners; Frosinone are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 69%. Four of the last six meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Frosinone 1UP at 1.52, 76% on the records (Frosinone scored first 4 of last 5, led in 4; led in 4 of 5 at home). The safer one: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.11 (77%). Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Frosinone 2-1 Torino (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).