Match details. Turkiye Kupasi, 3rd Round. Kick-off is Wed 28 Oct, 16:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Sakaryaspor have won seven, drawn one and lost two of their last ten, 2.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W D W W. In this competition Sakaryaspor have gone W. Bursa Yildirim Spor have won five, drawn five and lost none of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D W W W. In this competition Bursa Yildirim Spor have gone W.
The numbers. Sakaryaspor score 1.8 and concede one a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets. Bursa Yildirim Spor score 1.2 and concede 0.6 a game in their last five away, with three clean sheets.
The read. No side to back. A tight game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 35%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Bursa Yildirim Spor Over 0.5 goals (Sakaryaspor's own games don't back it (2 of 5)); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Sakaryaspor 1-1 Bursa Yildirim Spor (14% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).